Market Overview
General Market Conditions
The crypto market saw broad-based gains this week. Bitcoin broke through its previous all-time high of $112,000, reaching a new peak of $117,000 per coin. Altcoins also followed the broader market trend and posted notable gains. The market sentiment index rose from 71.85% last week to 82%, officially entering the “Greed” zone.
Stablecoin Market Dynamics
The stablecoin market continued its upward trajectory this week, with both USDT and USDC posting gains:
- USDT: Market cap reached $158.9 billion, up 0.38% WoW. Although the upward trend persisted, weekly net inflows fell below $1 billion again, signaling weakening capital inflow momentum.
- USDC: Market cap rose to $62.5 billion, up 1.29% WoW, not only maintaining its growth momentum but also surpassing USDT in weekly growth volume for the first time.
Investor Insight: While USDT continued its gradual climb with an increase of $600 million, this marked the end of its multi-week streak of >$1 billion weekly growth, suggesting slowing inflows from non-U.S. investors. Meanwhile, USDC’s sharp rise — driven largely by U.S.-based investors — highlights a notable shift in market capital dynamics and is worth close attention.
Political Risk Factors
- Tariff Policy Delayed but Not Resolved: The U.S. has postponed the restoration of tariff levels to April 2 rates until August 2, temporarily alleviating immediate market concerns. However, the broader trade war remains escalating.
- Widening Trade Tensions: Trump has imposed up to 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea, while talks with the EU have stalled. Additionally, tariffs on copper have been raised to 50%, impacting market sentiment.
Monetary Policy Expectations Turning Positive
- Dovish Fed Signals: FOMC minutes indicate a broadly neutral-to-dovish stance, with most members supporting one or more rate cuts in 2025 — a positive policy backdrop for markets.
- Conditions for Rate Cuts Clarified: The Fed explicitly stated that easing would commence if inflation falls or if economic growth slows, with markets now widely expecting a rate cut in September.
- Futures-Led Rally: This week’s rally was driven mainly by long positions in the futures market, while spot volumes remained low — highlighting a structural allocation dynamic.
Regulatory Developments
- Key Legislation Pending Vote: The U.S. house of Representatives is scheduled to vote on the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, two pivotal crypto-related bills. Their passage could significantly boost market sentiment.
Investment Strategy: Cautiously Optimistic
- Key Data Watch: U.S. CPI data for June, due Tuesday, will be pivotal in shaping September rate cut expectations.
- Dual Catalysts: The combination of CPI data and crypto legislation voting results represents two major near-term market drivers — both with potential “black swan” implications.
- FOMO Risk: Despite positive policy signals, investors are advised to remain disciplined, manage exposure, and avoid FOMO-driven buying.
Market Outlook
The crypto market is poised to move within an upward consolidation pattern over the coming week, fueled by dovish monetary policy expectations and pending legislative catalysts. However, uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs and volatile macro data pose ongoing risks. With the market currently being led by future long positions while spot volumes remain subdued, structural divergence remains a key theme.
Investors should:
- Closely monitor CPI data and legislative outcomes.
- Watch for any dislocations between spot and derivatives markets.
- Prepare for moderate market volatility and focus on structural opportunities.
Bullish Picks for Next Week: RAY & BONK
RAY + BONK: Investment Thesis
The LetsBonk.fun platform, a joint initiative by Solana meme token BONK and DEX Raydium, is reshaping the meme coin launchpad landscape. Designed as a hybrid of Launchpad + Creator Incentives within the Solana ecosystem, LetsBonk.fun allows users to deploy new tokens via a “one-click issuance” feature. Tokens meeting a ≥2 SOL liquidity threshold can be directly listed on Raydium.
Recently, LetsBonk.fun has rapidly gained traction, overtaking Pump.fun to become the leading meme coin launchpad on Solana. A key innovation is tokenomics — 50% of platform revenue is used to buy back and burn BONK tokens from the open market. This mechanism is leading the market to increasingly treat BONK as the platform token of LetsBonk.fun.
As the platform scales:
- Raydium (RAY) benefits from increased trading volumes and liquidity provisioning.
- BONK gains value from continuous buybacks and deflationary pressure.
Conclusion: The rapid growth of LetsBonk.fun is a structural catalyst for both RAY and BONK. Investors should monitor this ecosystem closely for opportunities tied to meme coin issuance and Solana-based retail flows.
On-Chain Data AnalysisRaydium
TVL
Raydium’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has seen a sharp upward trend following the explosive popularity of the LetsBonk.fun platform.
Fees
Raydium’s fee revenue has significantly increased in tandem with the surge in daily token launches on LetsBonk.fun. The growth in activity has driven up trading volumes, directly boosting fee generation on the Raydium DEX.
Trading Volume
Raydium’s trading volume has also surged as a direct result of LetsBonk.fun’s traction.
DEX Market Share on Solana
Raydium’s share of Solana DEX trading volume has recently jumped from 7.2% — previously suppressed by Pump.fun — to 12.3%, driven by activity from LetsBonk.fun.
Token Listings on Solana DEXs
Raydium now leads in daily token listings on Solana, surpassing Pump.fun. This listing activity enhances user engagement and supports further growth in Raydium’s trading volume.
Summary
The meteoric rise of LetsBonk.fun has catalyzed a broad-based fundamental improvement for Raydium. From TVL, fee income, and trading volume growth, to its DEX market share rebound (from 7.2% to 12.3%) and leadership in daily listings, the platform now stands as the most active DEX in the Solana ecosystem. These metrics construct a compelling growth narrative.
BONK
With BONK increasingly perceived as the platform token of LetsBonk.fun, we turn to analyzing the platform’s key metrics:
Daily Token Launch Share
LetsBonk.fun accounts for 65.9% of all new token launches across platforms, far exceeding Pump.fun’s 25.6%, indicating strong user interest and capital concentration.
30-Day Daily Active Addresses (DAA)
LetsBonk.fun’s daily active address count has surpassed Pump.fun, confirming that user attention and on-chain activity are shifting decisively toward LetsBonk.fun.
Daily Graduated Tokens Share
LetsBonk.fun leads with 66.1% of all graduated tokens (those reaching the liquidity threshold), far outpacing Pump.fun’s 32.5%, a key proxy for capital inflow and project success.
Trading Volume Share
LetsBonk.fun controls 61.9% of total trading volume in the memecoin launch sector, while Pump.fun trails at 38%. Increased trading volume directly boosts platform revenue, which is partly used to buy and burn BONK.
Platform Revenue
LetsBonk.fun has surpassed Pump.fun in total project revenue, generating $1.36M vs. Pump.fun’s $810K. For BONK holders, higher revenue means larger buybacks, increasing token scarcity and value support.
Buyback Mechanism
50% of LetsBonk.fun’s revenue is used to buy and burn BONK tokens from the open market. As platform revenue grows, the volume of buybacks and burns rises accordingly — providing continuous support to BONK’s price.
BONK vs. Pump.fun: Valuation Comparison (P/E Ratio)
LetsBonk.fun’s policy: 50% of all revenue is allocated to BONK token buybacks and burns. Pump.fun has no official buyback policy disclosed.
LetsBonk.fun’s project revenue is $1.36M, while Pump.fun’s project revenue is $810K.
BONK’s project valuation stands at $1.735B; Pump.fun is currently valued at $4.0B.
When Pump.fun’s buyback ratio is 25% of revenue, BONK’s P/E ratio is 6.99, and Pump.fun’s P/E ratio is 54.11
When Pump.fun’s buyback ratio is 50% of revenue, BONK’s P/E ratio is 6.99, and Pump.fun’s P/E ratio is 27.05
When Pump.fun’s buyback ratio is 75% of revenue, BONK’s P/E ratio is 6.99, and Pump.fun’s P/E ratio is 18.03
Therefore, we can conclude that BONK remains significantly undervalued at this stage, with strong upside potential.
Summary In summary, LetsBonk.fun has comprehensively outperformed Pump.fun across all core metrics: daily token launches (65.9% vs 25.6%), daily active addresses, graduated tokens (66.1% vs 32.5%), trading volume (61.9% vs 38%), and project revenue ($1.36M vs $810K), establishing itself as the new leader in the memecoin launchpad sector. More importantly, as the native platform token, BONK benefits from a 50% revenue buyback-and-burn mechanism, giving it a P/E ratio of just 6.99 — far below Pump.fun’s 18.03–54.11 range — clearly indicating that BONK is currently undervalued.
Bearish Targets: GPS, ZEN
GPS: Trading Volume Plummets 82% Amidst 842M Token Unlock — Price Risk Under Heavy Selling Pressure
Project Fundamentals & Positioning
GoPlus Security is a Web3-focused security service platform offering multi-chain and multidimensional risk detection capabilities. It aims to build a safer Web3 ecosystem by providing security infrastructure for users and developers. Through its API services, GoPlus enables dApps, wallets, and other applications to integrate its security tools and reach end users.
Worsening Market Environment
- Intensified Competition in On-Chain Security: As the blockchain space matures, the number of on-chain security solution providers has surged, creating a highly competitive landscape. GoPlus now faces increasing pressure from traditional audit firms, emerging DeFi security protocols, and in-house security tools developed by Layer 1 chains.
- Rising Security Awareness, Shrinking Budgets: While project teams are placing greater importance on security, bearish market conditions have tightened budgets. Most teams now prefer free or low-cost solutions, causing the paid security service market to shrink significantly.
Fundamentals Deteriorating Sharply
- Collapse in Core Business Metrics: Daily protected transaction volume has plunged from a peak of 220,000 to just 40,000 — a staggering 82% drop. This sharp decline in a key operational metric signals a dramatic reduction in user activity and business scale.
- Extremely Weak Revenue Generation: Daily project revenue has hovered between $100–$300 for an extended period — significantly below comparable projects, which often generate thousands per day. This highlights GoPlus Security’s weak monetization capabilities and raises concerns about sustainability.
- Stagnant User Growth: The total number of unique addresses has shown virtually zero growth over the past six months, indicating GoPlus has lost its ability to attract new users and is now stuck with a stagnant user base.
- Liquidity Drain: On-chain liquidity flow data shows sustained capital outflows, reflecting diminishing market confidence in the project.
Token Unlock Risk Assessment
- Unlock Scale and Timing: On July 16, 842 million GPS tokens — 8.42% of the total supply — will be unlocked, marking the largest release since the TGE. The timing is highly unfavorable, given the project’s continued fundamental decline.
- Imbalanced Circulating Supply Structure: With a current circulating supply ratio of only 18.13%, the upcoming unlock will significantly disrupt the supply-demand balance. In the absence of any positive catalyst, this influx of tokens could trigger immense sell pressure.
- High Sell-Off Motivation Among Recipients: This unlock primarily affects institutional investors and the project team. Given the project’s current downtrend, these stakeholders are highly incentivized to exit their positions, increasing the likelihood of aggressive selling.
- Severely Insufficient Market Absorption Capacity: With average daily trading volume at just $1.8 million, market liquidity is far too thin to absorb the unlocking of 842 million tokens. The shallow order book depth is unlikely to support this scale of supply increase.
Summary
GoPlus Security is facing a convergence of structural headwinds:
- At the sector level: The on-chain security market is overcrowded, while demand for paid services is drying up.
- At the business level: Core KPIs are collapsing — protected transactions are down 82%, daily revenue is only $100–$300, and user growth is flatlining.
- At the capital level: The upcoming 842M token unlock on July 16 poses a major risk in a market with only $1.8M in daily liquidity. Strong selling incentives among institutional and team holders further amplify this risk.
The combined impact of these bearish factors is expected to exert sustained and structural downward pressure on the price of the GPS token.
ZEN: Fundamentals in Free Fall with Major Unlock Ahead — Mounting Systemic Downside Risk
Project Fundamentals & Positioning
Horizen is a blockchain platform focused on privacy and scalability, designed to support decentralized applications (dApps) and sidechain development. Its core technologies include zero-knowledge proofs (zk-SNARKs) to enhance privacy and secure transactions, and sidechain architecture enabling developers to build customized blockchains.
Worsening Market Environment
- Sector Marginalization: Since inception, the privacy sector has never become a major narrative within the crypto market. In the current environment, investor focus has shifted to trending narratives like AI and meme coins, while privacy has failed to generate enough hype or wealth creation potential.
- Severe Lack of Market Attention: Due to a lack of compelling use cases and limited capital gains, the privacy sector has lost investor confidence. Capital and user attention continue to exit privacy-focused projects in favor of more speculative and viral narratives.
Fundamental Metrics in Sharp Decline
- TVL Collapse to Near-Zero Levels: Horizen’s total value locked (TVL) has plummeted from a historical high of $11.73M to just $270K — a staggering 97.69% drop. The current TVL indicates near-total user abandonment and an ecosystem on the brink of extinction.
- On-Chain Activity Has Stalled: With only 9 active addresses and $0.15 in gas fees in the past 24 hours, Horizen has effectively become a “dead project,” showing no meaningful economic activity on-chain.
- Liquidity Dried Up: On-chain capital flow data shows nearly no activity, with the limited movement primarily consisting of capital outflows. Existing users are leaving the ecosystem, and new capital is completely absent.
- End of Project Lifecycle: After seven years in existence, Horizen’s development trajectory is clearly in decline. All core metrics reflect that the project has entered the final stage of its lifecycle.
Token Unlock Risk Assessment
- Unlock Size and Timing: On July 20, 1.25 million ZEN tokens — 5.95% of the total locked supply — will be unlocked. Conducting such a sizable unlock amidst fundamentally deteriorating conditions presents highly unfavorable timing.
- Strong Sell-Off Incentives Among Unlock Recipients: According to the linear vesting schedule, this unlock primarily involves institutional investors and the project team. Given Horizen’s current downtrend and “dead project” status, these holders are highly incentivized to cash out and exit the project.
- Critically Low Market Absorption Capacity: With daily trading volume at just $3 million, liquidity is insufficient to absorb the sudden influx of 1.25 million tokens. Thin market depth will struggle to handle the increased supply, intensifying price pressure.
Summary
Horizen is facing a systemic collapse across multiple dimensions:
- Sector Level: The privacy narrative has never gained market traction, and capital continues to exit space.
- Project Level: TVL has collapsed 97.69% to $270K, and daily active addresses are down to 9 — confirming the “dead project” status.
- Liquidity Level: On-chain activity is near zero with continuous outflows and no signs of capital inflow.
- Unlock Risk: The July 20 unlock of 1.25M ZEN tokens will introduce significant selling pressure in a market with only $3M in daily trading volume. Strong cash-out motivation from institutional and team holders further amplifies the risk.
The convergence of these bearish factors presents a sustained, systemic downside risk for ZEN’s price trajectory.
Next Week’s Token Unlock Schedule (Unlock Amounts Over $1 Million)
Market Sentiment Index Analysis
The market sentiment index rose from 71.85% to 82%. BTC increased 5.91% this week, ETH rose 13.82%, and TOTAL3 (Altcoin market cap excluding BTC & ETH) gained 6.72%, pushing the overall Altcoin sector into the Greed zone.
Overall Market Theme Overview
Weekly Sector Performance by Return Rate
The Meme sector outperformed all others, while the CeFi sector showed the weakest performance.
- Meme Sector: Major tokens in the Meme category include DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, TRUMP, and BONK, with a combined weight of 89.44%. Their weekly price changes were: +13.96%, +17.62%, +22.41%, +18.11%, and +39.26%, respectively. These tokens all posted strong gains, outperforming projects in other sectors, making the Meme sector the top performer of the week.
- CeFi Sector: Dominated by BNB, LEO, BGB, and CRO, with a combined weight of 92.76%. Their weekly price changes were: +4.21%, +1.02%, -0.36%, and +17.21%, respectively. The average performance of these tokens lagged behind other sectors, making CeFi the worst-performing category this week.
Upcoming Major Crypto Events Next Week
- Tuesday, July 15: U.S. June YoY Core CPI (seasonally adjusted)
- Thursday, July 17: U.S. June Retail Sales MoM; Federal Reserve Beige Book release
- Friday, July 18: U.S. House votes on the GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act
Summary
This week, the cryptocurrency market experienced a broad-based rally. Bitcoin broke through its previous all-time high of $112,000, reaching a peak of $117,000, while the altcoin market followed suit with a strong upward trend. The Market Sentiment Index rose from 71.85% to 82%, entering the Greed zone.
In the stablecoin market, notable structural changes in capital flow emerged. USDT’s market cap grew 0.38% to $158.9B, but net weekly inflow remained below $1B, indicating weakening capital entry from non-U.S. sources. Meanwhile, USDC’s market cap rose 1.29% to $62.5B, surpassing USDT in absolute weekly growth for the first time — signaling an acceleration of capital deployment by U.S.-based institutions.
On the macroeconomic front, FOMC minutes revealed a dovish tilt among most members, with the Fed signaling readiness to cut rates if inflation declines or growth weakens. Additionally, the U.S. decision to delay tariff hikes until August 2 has temporarily eased trade tensions, creating a relatively accommodative backdrop for risk assets.
In the current market environment, fundamentals-driven investment logic is becoming increasingly important. The rise of LetsBonk.fun has led to a comprehensive improvement in the fundamentals of RAY and BONK. Platform data shows LetsBonk.fun has overtaken Pump.fun across all key indicators: token launches (65.9% vs. 25.6%), daily active addresses, graduated tokens (66.1% vs. 32.5%), trading volume (61.9% vs. 38%), and project revenue ($1.36M vs. $810K).
Most notably, BONK, as the platform token of LetsBonk.fun, employs a 50% revenue buyback-and-burn mechanism, resulting in a P/E ratio of just 6.99, significantly lower than Pump.fun’s 18.03–54.11 range — highlighting a clear value opportunity.
Outlook for the Coming Week
Several key catalysts will shape market dynamics in the week ahead. The U.S. June CPI data on Tuesday will be a decisive factor in shaping expectations for a potential September rate cut, offering direct guidance on monetary policy. On Friday, the U.S. House votes on the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts could mark a major regulatory breakthrough for the crypto industry.
We recommend focusing on quality projects with strong fundamentals and continuous innovation, especially in DeFi and infrastructure sectors with long-term growth potential. In the short term, the Meme launcher sector offers speculative opportunities — particularly around Pump.fun’s ongoing ICO.
At the same time, investors should remain cautious of token unlock-related selling pressure, maintain disciplined position sizing, set appropriate stop-loss levels, and balance capturing structural opportunities with robust risk management. Pay close attention to the effectiveness of policy catalysts and the sustainability of capital inflows.
About Us
Weekly Crypto Market Insights produced by FrontierLab. If you wish to receive regular updates or stay in touch, feel free to contact us anytime. Explore more → frontierlab.xyz ｜ Contact us → @FrontierLab_xyz