Market Overview
Market Situation
This week, the cryptocurrency market showed a fluctuating downward trend, with both BTC and ETH experiencing similar declines. The market sentiment index remained in the bearish range, moving slightly from 34 last week to 36.
Stablecoin Market Dynamics
The total market capitalization of stablecoins continued to grow, with an overall significant increase compared to last week. Both USDT and USDC showed synchronous growth trends:
- USDT: Market cap reached $184.1 billion, a week-on-week increase of 0.55%. Although the growth was modest at only $1 billion, it ended the decline seen last week. Despite the market price showing a fluctuating downward trend this week, funds from non-U.S. investors began re-entering the market.
- USDC: Market cap stood at $76.1 billion, a week-on-week increase of 1.33%, ending last weekâs downward trend. The increase of approximately $1 billion indicates that, although market prices experienced fluctuations and declines this week, U.S. investors started to re-enter the market.
Market Drivers Analysis
- Significant weakening of institutional inflows: Although BTC and ETH spot ETFs and corporate treasury purchases showed some recovery this week, performance remained poor. Outflows continued to exceed inflows, with ETH performing particularly weakly, reflecting extremely pessimistic market sentiment and insufficient institutional support.
- Delayed liquidity transmission mechanism: Even after the U.S. government reopened, the liquidity from the TGA accounts will take 1â6 weeks to transmit to the market, and cannot be immediately reflected in market prices. In the short term, liquidity tightness is difficult to fundamentally ease.
- âGood news priced inâ effect: Traders had generally bet on the government reopening before it occurred. After the reopening, typical âsell the newsâ behavior emerged, offsetting the price gains stimulated by the prior expectation of reopening.
- Increasing Fed internal disagreements: There is significant divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to cut rates at the December meeting. Several regional Fed presidents explicitly opposed further cuts in December. Market expectations for a rate cut fell sharply from 90% to 55.9%, further worsening market sentiment.
Policy Expectations and Regulatory Developments
- Key economic data missing: The U.S. White House stated that due to the government shutdown, October CPI and nonfarm payroll data may be âpermanently lost,â creating significant uncertainty for Fed policy-making.
- Fed policy stance becomes cautious: Fed Chair Powell emphasized that, due to the lack of necessary economic data, the December rate-cut decision will be more cautious, further weakening market confidence.
- Risk of concentrated macro data release: After the government resumes operations, a large volume of previously unreleased macroeconomic data will be published, potentially increasing market volatility and uncertainty in the short term.
Key Event Forecast for Next Week
- Intensive macro data release period: Next week will see a large volume of delayed macroeconomic data, some of which could directly affect the Fedâs December rate-cut decision. Close attention should be paid to these data points.
- Uncertain recovery of institutional buying power: Although BTC and ETH treasury companies and spot ETFs showed some recovery in purchasing power compared with last week, the capacity remains insufficient. Whether purchasing power can recover quickly next week will be a key factor in market direction.
- Liquidity release time window: While the U.S. government reopening may release some liquidity, transmission time is still needed, and the actual effect remains uncertain.
- Data-driven chain reaction: Treasury companies and spot ETFs often adjust their buying power based on market performance. Negative data could trigger risk-averse behavior, further shrinking purchasing power and forming a negative feedback loop.
Market Outlook
- Maintain a highly defensive stance: Considering the uncertainty of next weekâs macro data releases and continued weak institutional purchasing power, investors should remain cautious and prepare for risk prevention.
- Closely monitor data performance: Pay special attention to upcoming macroeconomic data, particularly key indicators that could influence the Fedâs December rate-cut decision.
- Monitor institutional fund movements: Continuously track fund flows of BTC and ETH spot ETFs and corporate treasuries, as these directly reflect market sentiment and liquidity conditions.
- Guard against rapid declines: Under the dual pressures of data uncertainty and delayed liquidity transmission, the market is at risk of sudden drops triggered by negative news. Investors should strictly control positions and avoid excessive exposure.
Next Week Forecast: Bearish Assets â MANTA, ZK
MANTA: Full contraction across dual-chain ecosystems, fundamentals deteriorate amid large token unlock
Project Fundamentals and Positioning
Manta Network is a modular ecosystem focused on building privacy protection for Web3. It consists of two main components: Manta Atlantic and Manta Pacific. Manta Atlantic is an underlying L1 designed to verify private on-chain identities, featuring extremely high performance and fast native proof generation. Manta Pacific is an Ethereum-based L2 that provides an environment with scalable and low-cost gas fees for EVM-native ZK applications. Manta aims to deliver end-to-end privacy protection for users via zero-knowledge proof technology while maintaining interoperability, convenience, high performance, and auditability.
Declining Competitiveness and Ecosystem Value
- Limited privacy track adoption: The privacy track where Manta Network operates has shown weak performance in recent years, failing to achieve broad market adoption. Only a small, niche group of users actually requires privacy functions, resulting in relatively narrow overall use cases.
- Deteriorating market perception of the L2 track: Over the past year, the Layer 2 track has faced criticism for not bringing prosperity to Ethereum and for further fragmenting its ecosystem. The track has long failed to generate wealth creation effects.
Core Operational Metrics Declining Across the Board
- TVL plummets: Manta Networkâs TVL has fallen from a peak of $667 million to $11.84 million, a decline of 98.22%, reflecting massive user exit from the on-chain ecosystem.
- Stablecoin outflows persist: On-chain stablecoin market cap has dropped to a historical low of $8.63 million, indicating continuous capital withdrawal from the Manta Network ecosystem.
- On-chain activity near dormancy: Daily on-chain gas fees for Manta Network are only around $80, reflecting extremely low user engagement, with the chain nearly in a dormant state.
- DEX trading volume continues to fall: Daily on-chain DEX trading volume is currently only about $10,000, essentially negligible and trending downward, indicating severely insufficient ecosystem activity.
- Minimal ecosystem project revenue: On-chain DApp daily revenue is only about $100, reflecting an extremely depressed overall ecosystem.
Circulating Supply Impact and Selling Pressure Warning
- Large-scale unlock upcoming: On November 18, 15.67 million MANTA tokens will be unlocked, accounting for 1.57% of the total locked supply, occurring at a critical time when project fundamentals continue to deteriorate.
- Market absorption capacity insufficient: Average daily MANTA trading volume is only around $1.5 million, clearly inadequate to absorb the selling pressure from the upcoming unlock.
- Strong sell motivation among unlock recipients: According to the linear unlocking schedule, this unlock primarily involves investment institutions and the project team. Given the project is currently in a clear downtrend, these holders have a strong incentive to cash out, and are likely to sell.
- Shallow liquidity depth: The relatively low daily trading volume indicates insufficient market depth, incapable of effectively buffering price shocks from the token unlock.
Summary
Manta Network faces multiple systemic risks:
- Market level: Privacy track use cases are limited, the L2 track suffers an overall trust crisis and is criticized for fragmenting the Ethereum ecosystem. The project has failed to establish differentiated advantages within the track.
- Business level: TVL has plummeted by 98.22%, stablecoin funds have dropped to historical lows, on-chain activity is near dormancy, and user engagement is extremely low.
- Capital level: The upcoming unlock of 15.67 million MANTA tokens on November 18 will create significant selling pressure in a market with only $1.5 million average daily trading volume. The unlock involves investment institutions and the team, both with strong cash-out motivation.
The combination of these bearish factors imposes continuous negative pressure on MANTA token prices. In the short term, it is unlikely that the downtrend can be reversed, and the project shows clear signs of ecosystem decay.
ZK: TVL Plummets 81%, Active Rate Below 0.1%, Layer 2 Trust Crisis Amid Comprehensive Data Deterioration
Project Fundamentals and Positioning
ZKsync is an Ethereum-based Layer 2 scaling solution designed to improve transaction speed and reduce costs through zero-knowledge proof technology. ZKsync uses a Rollup architecture, processing transactions off-chain and submitting the results to the Ethereum mainnet in the form of zero-knowledge proofs. This enables faster transactions and lower fees while maintaining Ethereumâs security.
Declining Competitiveness and Ecosystem Value
- Deteriorating market perception of the Layer 2 track: Over the past year, the Layer 2 track where ZKsync operates has faced criticism for not bringing prosperity to Ethereum and further fragmenting the ecosystem. L2 projects lack wealth creation effects, have long failed to attract market attention or capital, and the track as a whole is experiencing a trust crisis.
- Questionable scaling solution value: As an Ethereum scaling solution, ZKsync has failed to demonstrate its real value. The market doubts the effectiveness of the Layer 2 technical route, considering multi-chain ecosystems as dispersing Ethereum mainnet value and user attention.
Comprehensive Decline in On-Chain Operational Data
- Large-scale capital outflow: ZKsyncâs TVL has dropped from a peak of $273 million to $43.13 million, a decline of 84.21%, indicating most capital has exited the ZKsync ecosystem and on-chain liquidity is severely depleted.
- On-chain trading activity near dormancy: ZKsyncâs on-chain DEX trading volume continues to decline, currently only around $900,000 per day, reflecting extremely low user engagement. The on-chain trading ecosystem has essentially lost vitality.
- Minimal gas fee revenue: Daily gas fee revenue is only about $1,500, and total DApp revenue is approximately $14,000 per day. These core metrics directly reflect near-zero on-chain usage demand, exhibiting âdead-chainâ characteristics.
- Extremely low user activity: Despite having 10.71 million total accounts, only around 6,000 are active, representing an active rate below 0.1%. New account growth continues to decline, indicating users are gradually exiting the ZKsync ecosystem.
- Stablecoin market cap hits historic lows: On-chain stablecoin market cap has fallen to $58.89 million, a record low. The continued decline indicates ongoing capital outflow and further deterioration of the ecosystemâs financial base.
Circulating Supply Impact and Selling Pressure Analysis
- Relatively large unlock upcoming: On November 19, 163.75 million ZK tokens will be unlocked, accounting for 0.87% of total locked supply. While the proportion is not extremely high, it still poses significant pressure under the current market environment.
- Market absorption capacity severely insufficient: Average daily ZK trading volume is only around $4.8 million. Relative to the upcoming unlock size, market liquidity is clearly inadequate to absorb selling pressure, likely impacting the token price.
- Strong sell motivation among unlock recipients: According to the linear unlocking schedule, this unlock mainly involves investment institutions and the project team. Given the project is currently in a clear downtrend, these holders have a strong incentive to cash out and are likely to sell.
Summary
ZKsync faces multiple systemic risks:
- Market level: The Layer 2 track is experiencing an overall trust crisis, its scaling value is questioned, and the project has failed to establish differentiated advantages in a highly competitive L2 field.
- Business level: TVL has plunged 84.21%, daily trading volume is only $900,000, gas fee revenue is minimal, and active users account for less than 0.1%, effectively losing its fundamental functionality as a blockchain network.
- Capital level: The upcoming unlock of 163.75 million ZK tokens on November 19 will create significant selling pressure in a market with only $4.8 million average daily trading volume. The unlock involves investment institutions and the project team, both with strong cash-out motivation.
The combination of these bearish factors imposes sustained negative pressure on ZK token prices. The project shows typical âdead-chainâ characteristics, and the downtrend is unlikely to reverse in the short term.
Token Unlock Schedule Next Week (Unlock Value > $1 Million)
Market Sentiment Index Analysis
The market sentiment index remained largely unchanged, moving from 34 to 36%. BTC fell 5.02% this week, ETH declined 10.03%, and TOTAL3 rose 0.65%, with altcoins overall still remaining in the bearish range.
Sector Performance
Based on weekly returns, the DeFi track performed the best, while the NFT track performed the worst.
- DeFi track: In the DeFi track, LINK, HYPE, UNI, WLFI, AAVE, and ENA accounted for a large proportion, totaling 87.25%. Their weekly declines were 6.23%, 1.41%, 52.88%, 28.79%, 7.89%, and 1.01%, respectively. It can be seen that DeFi projects had relatively higher gains and outperformed projects in other tracks, making the DeFi track the best-performing.
- NFT track: In the NFT track, PENGU, NFT, APE, and SUPER accounted for a large proportion, totaling 92.47%. Their weekly changes were -1.89%, 0.76%, 4.12%, and 0.59%, respectively. It can be seen that most NFT projects had lower gains compared with projects in other tracks, making the NFT track the worst-performing.
Next Weekâs Major Crypto Events
- Monday (November 17): Devconnect 2025
- Thursday (November 20): U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 15
- Friday (November 21): U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final value for November)
Summary
This week, the cryptocurrency market showed a broad fluctuating downward trend. BTC fell 5.02%, ETH declined 10.03%, and TOTAL3 rose 0.65%, reflecting greater adjustment pressure on Ethereum. The market sentiment index remained largely unchanged, moving from 34 to 36, staying in the bearish range overall.
The stablecoin market exhibited positive signs of capital re-entry: USDTâs market cap increased 0.55% to $184.1 billion, ending last weekâs decline and indicating that funds, mainly from non-U.S. investors, have begun re-entering the market. USDCâs market cap rose 1.33% to $76.1 billion, ending last weekâs downward trend with an increase of approximately $1 billion, reflecting renewed entry by U.S. investors and providing some liquidity support to the market.
The USDX depeg crisis became the most significant risk event this week, exposing structural flaws in Delta-neutral stablecoins. Abnormal behavior by addresses associated with the founder, which ignored an 800% annualized borrowing rate and engaged in excessive borrowing and direct selling, not only triggered a 40% depeg but more importantly revealed systemic risks in synthetic stablecoins, including centralized governance, opaque strategies, and failed risk controls. In the sensitive period just after the xUSD crash, the USDX incident further exacerbated the marketâs trust crisis in the Delta-neutral model. The drawbacks of âblack boxâ operations and lack of reserve proof were fully exposed, ringing the alarm for risk management across DeFi innovation.
Next week, Federal Reserve policy divergence and intensive macroeconomic data releases will become decisive variables for market sentiment. Under the triple pressure of significantly weakened institutional inflows, delayed liquidity transmission, and the âgood news priced inâ effect, internal Fed disagreements over a December rate cut have caused market expectations to fall sharply from 90% to 55.9%. The absence of key economic data further increases policy uncertainty.
Investors should maintain a highly defensive stance in this complex environment, where policy divergence coexists with a data gap. Attention should be paid to the liquidity improvement signals from stablecoin capital re-entry, while also guarding against the impact of large token unlocks from fundamentally deteriorating projects such as MANTA and ZK, as well as the contagion effect of the Delta-neutral stablecoin trust crisis. Adequate risk management and position control should be prepared for potential data-driven rapid market fluctuations.