Market Overview
Market Summary
This week, the cryptocurrency market saw an upward trend. Bitcoin experienced a volatile trajectory, reaching a weekly high of $123,000 per coin before entering a period of consolidation. ETH, on the other hand, showed independent strength with a sharp upward movement. Altcoins did not follow Bitcoinâs lead but instead aligned more closely with ETHâs rally. The market sentiment index rose from 82% last week to 87%, remaining in the âGreedâ zone.
Stablecoin Market Dynamics
The stablecoin market continued its upward trend from last week, with both USDT and USDC showing synchronized growth. Notably, this week recorded the highest weekly inflow in the past year:
- USDT: Market cap reached $160.5 billion, with a 1.01% week-over-week increase. For the first time, weekly net inflow exceeded $1.5 billion, indicating a significant acceleration in capital entering the market.
- USDC: Market cap stood at $63.6 billion, up 1.76% from last week. The growth rate not only maintained last weekâs strong pace but also exceeded $1 billion in net inflows for the first time recently.
This trend is worth investor attention:
USDT has resumed rapid growth, with its weekly increase outpacing previous weeks, suggesting intensified entry of non-U.S. institutional capital. Meanwhile, USDCâs sharp rise and the fact that its inflow exceeded $1 billion for the first time reflect accelerating participation from U.S.-based investors.
Market Drivers Analysis
- Institutional Inflow Effect: This weekâs rally was primarily driven by aggressive ETH accumulation by institutions and public companies, creating strong FOMO sentiment and acting as a key price catalyst.
- Futures Market Bullishness: Long positions in ETH futures continued to increase, pulling spot prices higher and showcasing the influence of derivatives markets on the underlying assets.
Political Risk Impact
- Federal Reserve Independence Dispute: Tensions escalated between Trump and Powell, with rumors about Powellâs dismissal being denied. Still, investors are concerned that direct presidential interference could undermine the Fedâs independence and disrupt economic order.
- Ongoing Policy Uncertainty: Despite the dismissal rumors being denied, political infighting remains a potential market risk.
Legislative Developments
- Crypto Legislation Week: Multiple crypto-related bills were voted on in the U.S. House of Representatives. The CLARITY Act and Anti-CBDC Act passed the House and are awaiting Senate votes. The GENIUS Act passed the House and is pending presidential signature.
- Key Bills Pending: The CLARITY and Anti-CBDC Acts are expected to be voted on in the Senate next week.
Investment Strategy Recommendation: Cautiously Optimistic
- Sustainability of Institutional Inflows Uncertain: Whether institutions and listed companies will continue buying ETH in the coming week is a key variable. Continued purchases would maintain FOMO sentiment, otherwise, the market risks a pullback.
- Legislative âBlack Swanâ Risk: The outcome of Senate and House votes on the CLARITY and Anti-CBDC Acts introduces major uncertainty and the potential for âblack swanâ events.
- Guard Against FOMO: Investors should remain cautious, strictly control position sizes, and avoid blindly chasing prices.
Market Outlook
In the coming week, the crypto market will likely be driven by institutional capital inflows and legislative progress. However, the sustainability of institutional buying and the outcome of key bill votes remain the main uncertainties. With future-driven structural dynamics at play, the market may experience heightened volatility and choppy movements. Given the critical role of institutional capital and the potential catalyst from crypto legislation, market sentiment is expected to swing between optimism and caution.
Investors are advised to closely monitor institutional positioning and legislative updates, capitalize on structural opportunities, and remain vigilant in risk management â especially around evolving FOMO sentiment and the marketâs reaction to policy developments.
Next Weekâs Watchlist Updates: RAY, BONK
Recently, Pump.fun launched its ICO, attracting significant market attention and shifting investor focus toward the Launchpad sector. Notably, BONK, a meme project on Solana, in collaboration with Raydium, launched a meme token issuance platform LetsBonk.fun, which has now surpassed Pump.fun across multiple metrics. As a result, both investor attention and capital have shifted toward LetsBonk.fun.
Last week, we analyzed Raydium and the LetsBonk.fun platform data. This week, we continue tracking their on-chain metrics and evaluate project P/E ratios under buyback mechanisms, comparing them with sector leaders to assess whether the project is undervalued in the current Launchpad sector.
RAY: Value Opportunity in the Solana Launchpad Boom â Investment Thesis Based on On-Chain Data and Valuation
LetsBonk.fun positions itself as a Launchpad + creator incentive platform within the Solana ecosystem. It enables users to deploy tokens via an in-app âone-click issuanceâ feature. Tokens can be listed on Raydium once a â¥2 SOL liquidity threshold is met. Given that meme projects currently dominate Solanaâs activity, LetsBonk.funâs success could directly boost Raydiumâs trading volume, thereby triggering RAY token buybacks (25% of Raydiumâs fee income is allocated to buy back RAY), which may drive RAYâs price higher.
Raydiumâs own Launchpad platform has also benefited from the booming Launchpad sector on Solana. Since Raydiumâs Launchpad similarly allocates 25% of its fee income to RAY buybacks, the increased usage is expected to positively influence RAYâs price.
On-Chain Data Analysis
Fees
As shown in the chart above, Raydiumâs fee revenue experienced a significant upward trend following the explosive popularity of the LetsBonk.fun platform. Since then, Raydium has maintained its rapid growth in fee income. This is mainly due to the increasing number of meme tokens launched daily on the LetsBonk.fun platform. Additionally, with the surge in popularity of the LaunchPad sector, the number of meme tokens graduating daily from Raydiumâs LaunchPad platform has also increased rapidly, directly boosting Raydiumâs trading volume and thereby driving up its fee revenue.
Trading Volume
As shown in the chart above, Raydiumâs trading volume has also surged along with the growing momentum in the LaunchPad sector.
Raydiumâs Market Share in Solana DEX Trading Volume
As shown in the chart above, Raydiumâs share of trading volume among DEXs on Solana has recently increased. Previously, Raydiumâs market share on Solana was suppressed by Pumpswap, dropping to 7.2%, but it has since quickly risen to 12.5%.
Number of New Tokens on Solana DEXs
As shown in the chart above, the number of new tokens on Raydium has recently surpassed that of Pumpswap. This indicates that the daily graduation of meme tokens from Raydiumâs LaunchPad and LetsBonk.fun platform has now exceeded that of Pump.fun.
LaunchLabâs Fee Revenue
As shown in the chart above, LaunchLabâs fee revenue has also rapidly increased in recent times along with the booming LaunchPad sector. It has now reached a daily revenue level of $381,100.
- P/E Ratio Comparison Raydiumâs token buyback policy is to use 25% of the protocolâs fee revenue to buy back RAY tokens. LaunchLabâs buyback policy is also to use 25% of its fee revenue to buy back RAY tokens.
- To incentivize trading, LaunchLab currently distributes 50,000 RAY tokens as rewards each week. Based on the current price of RAY, this translates to a daily emission of $20,800 worth of RAY tokens.
- Given that the combined annualized fee revenue of Raydium and LaunchLab is $244.11 million, and according to their token buyback policies, approximately $61.02 million worth of RAY tokens are bought back annually. After subtracting the daily RAY emissions from LaunchLab (annualized at $7.59 million), the net annual buyback amount is $53.43 million.
- Therefore, Raydiumâs P/E ratio (FDV/Buyback) is calculated to be 30.26.
- As Raydium is a DEX project, it is mainly compared to other leading DEXs with token buyback mechanisms.
From the comparison above, Raydium ranks second among the top DEX projects with buyback mechanisms in terms of P/E ratio. This indicates that Raydium is a high-potential quality project within the DEX sector.
Conclusion
In summary, based on on-chain performance and peer valuation comparisons, Raydium (RAY) is currently in a significantly undervalued state. The project has benefited from the explosion of the meme economy in the Solana ecosystem and the boom of the LaunchPad sector. Its TVL has increased 112% from the low to $2.063 billion, with an annualized fee revenue of $244 million. Its market share in the Solana DEX sector has rebounded rapidly from 7.2% to 12.5%, reflecting strong fundamentals.
At the same time, Raydiumâs P/E ratio of 30.26 is below the average of similar DEX projects. The 25% fee revenue buyback mechanism provides valuation support, and the synergy with ecosystem platforms like LetsBonk.fun enhances its outlook. These factors give the RAY token a favorable risk-reward profile in the current market environment.
BONK: Value Capture Opportunity Driven by LetsBonk.fun Platform Dominance and Buyback-Burn Mechanism
Due to the tokenomics of LetsBonk.fun, 50% of the platformâs revenue is used to buy back and burn BONK tokens from the open market. As a result, the market has increasingly viewed BONK as the platform token of LetsBonk.fun. This buyback policy is expected to further drive up the price of BONK.
On-Chain Data Analysis
Daily Token Launch Volume and Market Share
As shown in the chart above, the number of tokens launched daily on LetsBonk.fun has increased compared to previous periods, reaching an all-time high of 23,122 tokens per day.
The chart shows that LetsBonk.funâs share of token launches in the LaunchPad sector has slightly declined from a peak of 65.9% to 58.3%. However, it still leads the entire sector by a wide margin, far ahead of Pump.funâs 34.1%. This indicates that although capital concentration on LetsBonk.fun has slightly decreased, the majority of market attention and capital remains focused on the platform.
Daily Graduated Tokens and Market Share
The chart shows that the number of graduated tokens launched daily on LetsBonk.fun has increased, reaching a record high of 282 tokens per day â well ahead of Pump.funâs 111.
The chart shows that LetsBonk.funâs share of graduated tokens in the LaunchPad sector has slightly declined from a peak of 75% to 71.7%. However, it still holds the top spot by a large margin, significantly ahead of Pump.funâs 27.8%. This suggests that while capital concentration has slightly decreased, the bulk of market focus and capital is still concentrated on LetsBonk.fun.
Graduation Rate of Launched Tokens
According to the chart, LetsBonk.funâs graduation rate has reached 1.23%, a recent high and significantly above Pump.funâs 0.8%. This indicates a higher capital efficiency and a stronger aggregation of funds on LetsBonk.fun.
Trading Volume
The chart shows that LetsBonk.funâs daily trading volume has reached a new peak of $146 million, with a clear upward momentum, far exceeding Pump.funâs $76.67 million.
From the chart, LetsBonk.fun accounts for 65.5% of the sectorâs daily trading volume. Although this is slightly down from the peak of 73.5%, it is still significantly higher than Pump.funâs 34.3%, indicating that market capital is mainly concentrated on LetsBonk.fun.
30-Day Daily Active Addresses
The chart shows that the number of daily active addresses on LetsBonk.fun has far exceeded that of Pump.fun. This demonstrates that current user attention within the LaunchPad sector is concentrated on LetsBonk.fun, and there is a clear user migration from Pump.fun to LetsBonk.fun.
Project Revenue
The charts show that LetsBonk.funâs project revenue has significantly surpassed that of Pump.fun. For the BONK token, higher revenue from LetsBonk.fun implies more tokens being bought back and burned.
Buyback Activity
According to the chart, based on the average buyback amount over the past 7 days (totaling $4.65 million), the daily buyback is approximately $660,000. Based on this figure, the annualized buyback amount is about $240 million.
P/E Ratio Estimation
LetsBonk.funâs buyback policy is clearly defined: 50% of the platformâs revenue is used to purchase BONK tokens from the open market and burn them. Therefore, the P/E ratio of LetsBonk.fun can be calculated as 11.84 (MC / Annual Buyback), 13.58 (FDV / Annual Buyback).
Conclusion
In summary, LetsBonk.fun has become the undisputed leader in the Solana-based LaunchPad sector. It has significantly outperformed Pump.fun in key metrics including daily token launches (23,122/day), graduated tokens (282/day), trading volume ($146M/day), daily active users (58,709), and project revenue ($1.42M/day), demonstrating strong market dominance and high user stickiness.
In addition, LetsBonk.funâs mechanism of using 50% of project revenue to buy back and burn BONK tokens effectively positions BONK as the platformâs value capture token. With an annualized buyback amount of $240 million and a P/E ratio of 11.84, BONK presents a clear value proposition and significant upside potential supported by the platformâs continued high growth and strong buyback activity.
Bearish Targets: AXL, EDU
AXL: Lagging Technology & Weakening Fundamentals, Token Unlocking to Trigger Multiple Headwinds
Project Fundamentals and Positioning
Axelar aims to enable seamless interoperability across blockchains by creating a universal overlay network that connects various ecosystems, applications, assets, and users â essentially acting as a bridge to support smart contract and dApp execution across chains.
Worsening Market Environment
- Technological Lag in the Cross-Chain Sector: The sector is evolving toward intent-centric architectures, while Axelar remains focused on traditional interoperability. This outdated approach risks marginalization.
- Strong Headwinds from Market Leaders: Due to high security risks in the cross-chain sector, users prefer leading protocols. Axelarâs market share is just 0.58%, far behind LayerZeroâs 33.75%, reflecting a significant competitive disadvantage.
Fundamentals in Decline
- TVL Drop of 35.68%: Since April, Axelarâs TVL has shrunk significantly, indicating continuous user capital outflows and decreased engagement.
- Low Trading Activity: Daily trading volume is only $2.67 million and trending downward. Trading volume is a key usage indicator for cross-chain protocols, and Axelarâs current levels indicate severely limited activity.
- Minimal Market Share: Axelar accounts for less than 1% of total cross-chain volume, far from market leader status. With user preferences skewed toward top-tier protocols, Axelar faces harsh competitive pressure.
Token Unlock Risk Assessment
- Scale & Timing: On July 26, 13.5 million AXL tokens (1.12% of total locked supply) will be unlocked. With fundamentals deteriorating, this timing is highly unfavorable.
- Insufficient Liquidity: With only $2.1M in daily volume, the market cannot absorb the newly unlocked supply, resulting in major sell pressure.
- Strong Sell Motive: The unlock primarily affects institutional investors and the team, who are highly likely to liquidate during the downtrend.
- Thin Market Depth: Low daily volume means limited liquidity to buffer the price impact.
Conclusion
Axelar faces systemic downside risks:
- Tech: Lagging architecture and potential marginalization.
- Market: Minimal share and weak competitiveness.
- Business: 35.68% TVL drop and falling volume.
- Capital: Token unlock of 13.5M in a weak liquidity environment. The combined risks create persistent downward pressure on AXL price.
EDU: Niche Sector Project Facing Multiple Challenges and Unlocking Pressure
Project Fundamentals and Positioning
Open Campus is a decentralized education platform aimed at revolutionizing how educational content is created, distributed, and accessed via blockchain. It allows educators to monetize content using Publisher NFTs.
Sector Disadvantages
- Lack of Market Interest: Decentralized education is a niche sector that has not attracted mainstream investor attention or capital compared to DeFi, GameFi, or AI. This limits market consensus and growth.
Project Vitality Breakdown
- User Growth Has Halted: Only 6 new holders recently. This stagnation signals project death spiral.
- Core Function Usage = Zero: The platformâs core feature, OC Genesis NFT, has seen zero trading activity â indicating no content sharing and a complete failure of the business model.
- Extremely Low Engagement: Only 160 weekly active EDU wallets, many of which belong to market makers. Actual user count is negligible.
- No Growth in NFT Holders: For six months, there have been no new OC Genesis NFT holders. This confirms total user and usage collapse.
Liquidity is Severely Lacking
- Minimal Trading Volume: EDU sees only $1.2M in daily volume â well below market norms.
- Cannot Absorb Unlocking Supply: With 21.01 million EDU tokens unlocking and only $1.2M in daily volume, the market cannot absorb the supply â resulting in extreme sell pressure.
Huge Unlock Risk
- Large Unlock Scale: On July 27, 21.01 million EDU tokens (2.1% of locked supply) will be released. This adds serious sell pressure.
- High Sell Motivation: Unlock targets institutional investors and the team â both with strong incentives to exit.
Conclusion:
EDU faces layered, systemic bearish pressures:
- Sector lacks interest.
- Zero user growth and platform abandonment.
- Liquidity insufficient.
- Massive token unlock pending. Together, these risks make EDU highly speculative and dangerous.
Token Unlocks Over $1 Million Next Week
Market Sentiment Index Analysis
The market sentiment index rose from 82% to 87%. This week, BTC increased by 3.6%, ETH surged by 22.16%, and TOTAL3 (total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH) climbed by 14.91%. Altcoins as a whole remained within the âGreedâ zone.
Sector Performance Overview
Based on weekly returns, the PayFi sector outperformed all others, while RWA had the weakest performance.
- PayFi Sector: Dominated by XRP, XLM, BCH, and LTC, which together account for 99.28% of the sector. Their respective performances this week were +32.53%, +58.12%, +22.41%, -2.16%, and +10.96%. The overall strong gains across most of these tokens made PayFi the best-performing sector this week.
- RWA Sector: Led by ONDO, SKY, PENDLE, and PLUME, comprising 96.19% of the sector. Their respective returns this week were +7.16%, -3.18%, +10.41%, and +5.64%. These figures indicate a lower average return compared to other sectors, making RWA the weakest performer of the week.
Upcoming Major Crypto Events (Next Week)
- Thursday, July 24: European Central Bank (ECB) to announce interest rate decision
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 19 to be released
Summary
This week, the cryptocurrency market exhibited clear structural divergence: ETH showed independent strength and led the rally among altcoins, while Bitcoin remained relatively range-bound. The stablecoin market saw the largest single-week inflow in the past year â USDT grew by over $1.5 billion, and USDC exceeded $1 billion in net inflows for the first time â reflecting accelerated institutional capital entry worldwide. The market sentiment index rose from 82% to 87%, remaining in the âGreedâ zone, indicating sustained bullish investor sentiment.
However, political risk factors should not be ignored. The conflict between Trump and Powell has intensified. Although rumors of Powellâs dismissal were denied, the political tug-of-war still introduces uncertainty to the market. Meanwhile, there was significant progress in U.S. crypto legislation: the CLARITY Act and the Anti-CBDC Act passed the House and are now with the Senate; the GENIUS Act passed the House and awaits the presidentâs signature. The Senateâs vote on the CLARITY and Anti-CBDC Acts could become a key variable influencing future market trends.
Investors should closely watch the sustainability of institutional capital inflows and the potential catalytic effect of U.S. crypto legislation. While enjoying policy tailwinds, itâs critical to guard against âblack swanâ events.
In the current market environment, fundamentals-driven investment logic is becoming increasingly valuable. Both RAY and BONK present strong value investment opportunities:
- RAY has benefited from the explosive growth of the Solana LaunchPad sector. Its TVL has risen 112% from the low to $2.063 billion, with annualized fee revenue reaching $244 million. Its market share in the Solana DEX sector rebounded sharply from 7.2% to 12.5%. Despite this strong performance, RAYâs P/E ratio remains relatively undervalued at 30.26x compared to peers.
- BONK, as the de facto value capture token of the LetsBonk.fun platform, benefits from the platformâs dominance over Pump.fun in metrics such as daily token launches, graduated tokens, trading volume, and active users. With $240 million in annualized buybacks and a P/E ratio of 11.84x, BONK has a clear value narrative and strong fundamental support.
Looking ahead to next week, the crypto market is likely to be driven by continued institutional inflows and progress on U.S. crypto legislation. However, the key variables will be whether institutions continue to buy ETH and the outcome of the Senate votes on the CLARITY and Anti-CBDC Acts. Investors are advised to adopt a cautiously optimistic stance, focus on structural investment opportunities in the Solana LaunchPad sector â especially projects benefiting from the LetsBonk.fun effect â and strictly manage position sizes to avoid risks associated with potential FOMO-driven rallies.
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