Market Overview
Market Summary
This week, the cryptocurrency market showed a volatile upward trend. BTC experienced choppy upward movement, while ETH performed relatively strongly and established a clear uptrend. Most altcoins exhibited sideways movement. The market sentiment index rose from last weekâs 27.81% to 38%, though it remains in bearish territory overall.
Stablecoin Market Trends
The total market capitalization of stablecoins continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed significantly. A divergence emerged, with USDT maintaining steady growth while USDC began to recover:
- USDT: Market cap reached $163.9 billion, up 0.06% WoW. For the first time in six weeks, weekly market cap growth fell below $500 million, registering only $100 million â indicating very weak capital inflows this week.
- USDC: Market cap reached $64.7 billion, up 0.98% WoW, ending last weekâs decline and resuming growth. This weekâs $700 million increase was significant.
This phenomenon deserves investor attention: Although USDTâs market cap continues to rise, the weekly increase of just $100 million marks the end of six consecutive weeks of >$1 billion inflows, indicating weaker non-U.S. capital entry. Meanwhile, USDCâs renewed growth reflects a return of primarily U.S. investor capital, with over $500 million entering this week â faster than usual. This signal warrants continuous monitoring.
Market Drivers Analysis
- Political risk concerns: Trumpâs dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director over last weekâs non-farm payroll data revision raised concerns about data independence, adding political uncertainty.
- Recession fears reignited: The payroll revision rekindled worries about a potential U.S. recession, impacting investor confidence.
- Weak manufacturing data: On Wednesday, the U.S. July non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity and intensifying economic concerns.
- Deteriorating trade data: Although the U.S. trade deficit narrowed, exports also fell, sparking concerns about the economic impact of tariff policies.
- ETF outflows: BTC and ETH spot ETFs performed poorly this week, with consistent daily outflows, reflecting weak market sentiment.
Policy Expectations & Regulatory Developments
- Rate cut expectations: Several Fed voting members expressed support for two or more rate cuts in 2025, providing some positive sentiment.
- Regulatory clarity: The SEC issued a statement clarifying that certain liquid staking activities generally do not constitute securities issuance or sales, easing market sentiment.
- 401(k) pension entry: On Thursday, Trump signed an executive order allowing 401(k) pensions to invest in cryptocurrencies, which helped boost sentiment.
Key Events Forecast for Next Week
- Important data releases: U.S. July Retail Sales MoM and end-July seasonally adjusted CPI YoY. These will influence the Fedâs September rate-cut decision.
- Policy impact assessment: The performance of these key economic indicators will directly shape market expectations for the Fedâs monetary policy path.
Investment Strategy Recommendations
- Maintain caution: Given the multiple uncertainties, investors should operate cautiously.
- Guard against âblack swanâ events: Closely monitor next weekâs key data releases and prepare for potential risk events to avoid sudden market downturns.
Market Outlook
The current market is facing a complex environment with multiple bearish factors: political concerns over data independence, economic recession risks, weak manufacturing data, and sustained ETF outflows. While Fed rate-cut expectations and marginal regulatory improvements provide some support, it remains to be seen whether these positives can offset the negative impact.
Next weekâs key economic data will guide market direction. Retail sales data will reflect consumer spending trends, while CPI data will directly influence the Fedâs policy stance. If the data underperforms, recession fears could intensify; conversely, strong data could ease some pessimism but may delay rate-cut expectations.
Under these conditions, the market may continue a choppy pattern, waiting for clearer policy and economic signals. Investors should remain vigilant, manage risks, and pay attention to positive policy changes to prepare for potential market turning points.
Bearish Picks for Next Week
STRK â Ecosystem Contraction Under L2 Trust Crisis & $163M Token Unlock Risk
Project Fundamentals & Positioning
StarkNet is an Ethereum-based Layer 2 project using zero-knowledge proof (ZK-Rollup) technology to achieve infinite scalability while maintaining Ethereumâs security and composability. It enables developers to build scalable dApps without compromising mainnet security.
Industry & Market Position Weakening
- L2 perception deterioration: Over the past year, the L2 sector has been criticized for failing to bring prosperity to Ethereum and instead worsening ecosystem fragmentation, with no sustained wealth creation effect.
- Stagnant ecosystem: L2 projects lack innovation, attracting neither market attention nor funding. StarkNet, as a representative, faces ecosystem bottlenecks.
Severe Fundamental Decline
- TVL collapse: From $331M peak to $92.05M (â72.19%), showing mass user exit.
- Stablecoin outflows: From $57.19M to $38.51M (â32.66%), indicating continuous capital withdrawal.
- Near-zero on-chain activity: Daily fees just $100â$200, reflecting extremely low usage â âdead chainâ state.
- Falling DEX volume: Daily volume only $2.8M, trending downward.
- Minimal dApp revenue: Only ~$100/day, declining.
- Stalled user growth: Fewer than 100 new users/day, DAUs declining.
Unlock Risk Assessment
- Scale & timing: 163.03M STRK unlocks on Aug 15 (1.63% of locked supply) amid deteriorating fundamentals.
- Weak liquidity: ~$4M daily trading volume is insufficient to absorb sell pressure.
- Strong sell motivation: Unlock targets include VCs and team, likely to cash out.
Summary
StarkNet faces systemic risks â L2 trust crisis, TVL down 72%, stablecoin outflows, near-zero activity, and an Aug 15 unlock creating massive sell pressure in a thin market.
CYBER â SocialFi Collapse with $9.1M Unlock Pressure
Project Fundamentals & Positioning
CyberConnect is an Ethereum Layer 2 SocialFi project aiming to provide a social layer for Web3, enabling cross-platform social graph management and migration, addressing Web2âs monopoly and data silo issues.
Industry & Market Position Weakening
- SocialFi stagnation: The sector remains niche, with users favoring Web2 social platforms.
- L2 sector trust crisis: Similar to STRK, L2 fragmentation concerns persist.
Severe Fundamental Decline
- DEX volume collapse: ~$1K/day, nearly zero trading activity.
- Stalled user growth: ~10 new users/week, steadily declining.
- Shrinking content ecosystem: Only 1â5 new posts/week.
- Extremely low MAUs: ~80 monthly active users â functionally a âdeadâ social network.
Unlock Risk Assessment
- Large unlock: 5.33M CYBER unlocks on Aug 17 (5.33% of locked supply).
- Weak liquidity: ~$1.5M daily volume â insufficient to absorb selling.
- Strong sell motivation: Unlock targets include VCs and team, likely to sell.
Summary
CyberConnect faces a dual-sector disadvantage â SocialFi stagnation and L2 trust issues â with near-zero usage, minimal content, and high unlock-driven sell pressure.
Next Weekâs Token Unlocks (>$1M)
Market Sentiment Index
- The index rose from 27.81% to 38%.
- BTC +2.43% WoW, ETH +11.48% WoW, TOTAL3 +5.81% WoW.
- Altcoins remain in bearish territory.
Hot Project of the Week
Pump.fun: Strategic Transformation Revives Market Position, Transparent Operations and Buyback Mechanism Drive Comprehensive Business Recovery
Background
Following its ICO, Pump.fun faced significant challenges: the token price kept falling, and its dominance in the LaunchPad sector was gradually eroded by LetsBonk.fun. Throughout July, LetsBonk.fun overtook Pump.fun across all core metrics â market share, daily trading volume, graduated token count, daily revenue, and user activity â driving Pump.funâs market share down to a historic low of just 17.8%.
In response, Pump.fun implemented a series of counterattack strategies:
- Launched an aggressive token buyback program, allocating 98% of the platformâs daily revenue to $PUMP token buybacks, spending a total of $21.5M to repurchase 3.828 billion tokens.
- Introduced a publicly transparent revenue dashboard, displaying the platformâs financial status in real time.
- Reactivated the âOfficial Selectionâ meme coin promotion mechanism to enhance project quality on the platform.
These measures achieved remarkable results: $PUMP rebounded 30% from its bottom, and more importantly, reignited market confidence in the platform. Through this strategic transformation, Pump.fun successfully reversed its market position, surpassing LetsBonk.fun once again in trading volume, revenue, and new token launches â regaining a leading position in the Solana LaunchPad ecosystem.
Specific Measures
Aggressive Token Buyback Program
Pump.fun adopted an aggressive buyback strategy, dedicating 98% of platform revenue to $PUMP token repurchases â far exceeding the 20â50% common standard in other projects. Since the buyback program officially launched on July 16, the platform has spent a total of $21.5M (equivalent to 129,100 SOL) to repurchase 3.828 billion $PUMP tokens from the market.
Operationally, Pump.fun has established a systematic buyback mechanism: after daily revenue settlement, 98% of funds are automatically transferred to a dedicated buyback wallet, and buybacks are conducted via DEX. In the past six days alone, the platform spent 8,740 SOL on intensive buybacks â even reaching 102% of revenue for the period, exceeding the planned 98% â demonstrating the teamâs strong commitment to rebuilding token value.
To ensure transparency, the platform has set up a real-time buyback tracker on its official website, showing daily buyback volumes, cumulative totals, and token burn counts. All buyback transactions are fully traceable on-chain, and users can verify each one through a blockchain explorer.
âOfficial Selectionâ Brand Revamp
Pump.fun fully upgraded its âOfficial Selectionâ project promotion system, establishing a multi-layered project screening and incubation mechanism. The platform assembled a professional evaluation team â including technical audit experts, market analysts, and community operations specialists â to conduct comprehensive reviews of all âOfficial Selectionâ applicants.
Selection Criteria: Pump.fun designed a strict âSix-Dimensional Evaluation Systemâ â
- Project Innovation (25% weight)
- Technical Feasibility (20%)
- Team Background (20%)
- Community Base (15%)
- Market Potential (15%)
- Risk Control (5%)
Only projects scoring above 80 points receive the âOfficial Selectionâ badge and full-scale promotional support.
Promotion Package:
Selected projects receive a 7-day homepage spotlight, promotion through the platformâs official social media network, KOL collaboration campaigns, community AMA events, and dedicated liquidity support. The platform also provides âEscort Servicesâ â including 72-hour post-launch real-time monitoring, abnormal transaction alerts, and anti-fraud protection.
Results:
- TROLL surged 9x in 48 hours after receiving the badge, with market cap surpassing $100M.
- Tokabu rose 5x during promotion, hitting a $35M market cap.
- USDUC, CHILLHOUSE, and neet also achieved 2â5x gains during their promotion periods.
The average success rate for âOfficial Selectionâ projects reached 78%, far exceeding the platformâs overall graduation rate of 15%. This significantly boosted investor confidence in Pump.funâs screening ability and reinforced its âquality-firstâ brand image.
On-Chain Data Analysis
Daily Token Launch Count & Market Share
From the chart, Pump.funâs daily token launches have surged, reaching 24,081 per day, reclaiming its leadership position.
From the market share chart, Pump.funâs share of daily token launches in the LaunchPad sector has rebounded to a new high of 70.87%, showing that most market attention and capital have returned to Pump.fun.
Daily Graduated Token Count & Market Share
The data shows Pump.funâs daily graduated token count has rapidly increased to 151 per day, far exceeding LetsBonk.funâs 51 per day.
From the market share perspective, Pump.funâs share of daily graduated tokens in the LaunchPad sector has risen sharply to 74.4%, retaking first place from LetsBonk.funâs 25.1%. This indicates that the majority of market focus and capital is now concentrated on Pump.fun.
Trading Volume
Data shows Pump.funâs daily trading volume has grown rapidly to $155M/day, far surpassing LetsBonk.funâs $23.93M/day.
In market share terms, Pump.fun accounts for 86.4% of daily trading volume in the sector, showing a sharp increase compared to LetsBonk.funâs 13.4% â further evidence that market capital is primarily concentrated on Pump.fun.
Project Revenue
Charts indicate Pump.funâs project revenue recently far exceeded LetsBonk.funâs. For both $PUMP and $BONK tokens, higher project revenue means more buybacks. Thus, Pump.funâs current buyback intensity is significantly higher than LetsBonk.funâs.
Buyback Figures
Based on the past 7 days:
- Pump.fun repurchased $2.4764M worth of $PUMP, averaging $353.8K/day. This projects to $129M annual buybacks.
- LetsBonk.fun repurchased $1.5487M worth of $BONK, averaging $221.3K/day â equivalent to $80.75M annually.
P/E Ratio Calculation
Summary
In conclusion, Pump.funâs recent turnaround clearly demonstrates that in the cryptocurrency market, the right strategic execution can quickly reverse a competitive disadvantage. Facing a crisis where its market share fell to a historic low of 17.8%, Pump.fun adopted an aggressive strategy of allocating 98% of its revenue to token buybacks and relaunched its âOfficial Selectionâ brand initiative. Within a short period, it achieved a full-scale comeback: daily token launches reached 24,081 (70.9% share), daily trading volume climbed to $155M (86.4% share), and annualized buybacks totaled $129M â with all key metrics surpassing LetsBonk.fun. More importantly, Pump.funâs P/E ratio (26.81) has, for the first time, exceeded LetsBonk.funâs P/E ratio (27.95), signaling greater investment value. This strategic transformation not only reestablished Pump.funâs dominance in the Solana LaunchPad sector but also set a new industry benchmark for âtransparent operations + value return.â
Sector Performance
Based on weekly returns, the Layer2 sector performed the best, while the SocialFi sector performed the worst.
- Layer2 Sector: Within the Layer2 sector, MNT, POL, ARB, STX, TIA, and OP have the largest weights, with a combined share of 83.91%. Their weekly changes were +40.72%, +12.23%, â0.61%, â2.67%, â1.85%, and +0.68%, respectively. Overall, Layer2 projects outperformed those in other sectors, making Layer2 the best-performing sector this week.
- SocialFi Sector: Within the SocialFi sector, TON and CHZ have the largest weights, with a combined share of 95.09%. Their weekly declines were â5.63% and â0.21%, respectively. Since TON alone accounts for 89.96% of the sector, its drop this week dragged down the entire sector, making SocialFi the worst-performing sector.
Next Weekâs Key Crypto Events
- Aug 12: U.S. end-July CPI
- Aug 14: Pragma New York event
- Aug 15: U.S. July Retail Sales
Summary
This week, the cryptocurrency market showed a volatile upward trend. ETH demonstrated relative strength, while Bitcoin and most altcoins maintained a choppy pattern, with the overall market still in a cautious, wait-and-see mode. The market sentiment index rose from 27.81% to 38% â an improvement, but still within bearish territory, reflecting that investor confidence has yet to fully recover.
Stablecoin market growth slowed and diverged: USDTâs market cap reached $163.9B (+0.06% WoW), indicating weaker non-U.S. capital inflows; USDCâs market cap recovered to $64.7B (+0.98% WoW), ending last weekâs decline. The market was influenced by multiple factors: Trumpâs dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director sparked political uncertainty; the downward revision of non-farm payrolls reignited recession fears; Julyâs non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell, signaling a slowdown in the services sector; and ongoing outflows from BTC and ETH spot ETFs weighed on sentiment. On the positive side, several Fed voting members supported two or more rate cuts in 2025; the SEC clarified its stance on liquid staking regulation; and Trump signed an executive order allowing 401(k) pension funds to invest in crypto. The pension fund inflow is a capital shift worth close monitoring, as it may signal a major structural change in market participation.
Pump.funâs ecosystem performance stood out this week, seizing the opportunity for a counterattack in the LaunchPad sector. Through an aggressive strategy of allocating 98% of revenue to buybacks, Pump.fun staged a perfect comeback from its historic low market share of 17.8%, with daily token launches surging to 24,081 (70.9% sector share). Trading volume exceeded $155M/day, accounting for 86.4% of the sector, far surpassing LetsBonk.funâs $23.93M. On-chain data showed Pump.fun maintained a high graduation success rate of 151 tokens per day (74.4% sector share). Notably, its annualized buyback amount reached $129M, exceeding LetsBonk.funâs $80.75M, demonstrating the platformâs commitment to maintaining token value. Its P/E ratio of 26.81 compared to its competitorâs 27.95 also reflects greater investment value. Following the reactivation of the âOfficial Selectionâ mechanism, projects like TROLL achieved a 9x increase, with an average success rate of 78%, reinforcing Pump.funâs leading position in the Solana LaunchPad sector.
In the near term, the crypto market may continue to consolidate. Next weekâs U.S. July retail sales and CPI data will be key drivers. Stablecoin capital flows remain a critical stabilizing factor â USDCâs renewed growth provides a buffer, but USDTâs slowing growth could trigger broader adjustments. While positive policy developments are supportive, it remains to be seen whether they can offset the negative effects of political uncertainty and recession fears. Investors should be prepared with solid risk management. In todayâs environment of intertwined uncertainties, the market needs clearer policy and economic signals for direction. Overall, investors should remain cautious and guard against potential âblack swanâ events.