BTC and ETH Weekly Overview
Market Performance
The crypto market has been experiencing a volatile trend this week, still lacking profit-making opportunities. Additionally, the market is short of hot topics, resulting in overall poor price performance.
Key Events
Mtgox Compensation Event
Overview: The Mtgox bankruptcy compensation plan has been announced, with plans to distribute BTC and BCH to victims within three months. There has been no change in the total number of BTC on the on-chain addresses.
Analysis: With the announcement of the Mtgox compensation plan, the market has started to gradually absorb the negative impact brought by Mtgox. Although the BTC price remains below $60,000, it has begun to show signs of stabilization. It is expected that the impact will lessen over time.
German Government’s BTC Sell-off
Overview: This week, the German government’s BTC sell-off progress has surpassed 65%, reducing their BTC holdings from 50,000 to 9,094.
Analysis: Market fear has eased as the German government’s BTC holdings decreased. The daily influx of several thousand to ten thousand BTC into the market is having less impact. Additionally, the US ETF’s daily net inflow has remained above 4,000 BTC, indicating that BTC’s current price is attracting market investors. At the current sell-off rate, it is expected to be completed by next week.
ETH Spot ETF Approval Expected Next Week
- Overview: The market has adjusted its expectation for the ETH spot ETF approval to be before July 15. However, the hype around the ETH spot ETF has cooled.
- Analysis: The ETH/BTC exchange rate increased this week, indicating that ETH has been relatively stronger than BTC. Investors are betting on the approval of the ETH spot ETF next week. However, following approval, there is a possibility of continued outflows similar to what was seen after the approval of the BTC spot ETF, which may affect ETH prices.
US June CPI YoY
Overview: The US June CPI (year-over-year) announced on Thursday evening was 3.0%.
Analysis: This CPI figure is significantly lower than May’s 3.4% and also below the expected 3.1%, indicating that the US CPI is rapidly cooling down. During his testimony on Capitol Hill on Wednesday and Thursday, Powell stated that the Fed would not wait for CPI to fall to 2% before starting to cut interest rates. As a result, the market is now fully priced in two rate cuts in 2024, with some traders even betting on three cuts. Despite this positive data, market prices did not rise in response; instead, both the market and US stocks experienced a decline.
Altcoin Weekly Overview
Overall Performance
From the chart, it can be seen that market sentiment, although still in the panic stage this week, has rebounded compared to last week. This improvement is mainly due to the gradual absorption of negative factors in the market and the gradual improvement of macroeconomic data, leading to a gradual recovery in investor confidence for the future. However, it is still necessary to note that the impacts of the Mtgox compensation event and the German government’s BTC sell-off have not completely dissipated, and there is still some panic in the market. Therefore, it is not advisable to be overly optimistic at this stage, and attention should still be paid to the development of the Mtgox compensation event.
Top Gainers Overview
Top 5 Tokens by Gains in the Past Week (Excluding Low Volume Tokens and Meme Coins)Data Source: CoinMarketCap
The leaderboard does not show a “sector concentration” characteristic, with the rising tokens scattered across various sectors. Additionally, the gains were higher than last week, indicating a good rebound in the altcoin market this week.
Meme Coin Gain Leaderboard
The overall market showed a trend of volatility this week, with the Meme sector receiving less attention from the market. Comparing this week’s gains to last week’s, there continues to be a downward trend.
Social Media Highlights
Based on LunarCrush’s top five daily growth and Scopechat’s top five AI scores from this week (July 6–12), the statistical data is as follows:
The most frequently mentioned theme was AI. Here are the tokens that made the list (excluding tokens with very low trading volumes and meme coins):
Theme Tracking
From the table, it can be seen that based on the weekly return rate, the best-performing sector is Layer2, while the worst-performing is AI.
The Layer2 sector includes BTC-L2 and ETH-L2, both of which have achieved returns of over 50% this year. Their significant gains compared to other sectors have led to substantial corrections in the past two weeks, with many tokens experiencing significant losses. Following these steep declines in previous weeks, Altcoin sentiment rebounded sharply this week after the overall market stabilized. The Layer2 sector led the way with a significant rebound, with almost all tokens showing positive gains this week. Therefore, the strong performance of the Layer2 sector this week is primarily due to its significant rebound following previous large declines, necessitating continued observation in the future.
In contrast, except for the IQ token, the AI sector saw a downtrend this week. This is mainly because most tokens in the AI sector are VC tokens, exacerbated by the unlocking event of WLD, which has sparked strong investor dissatisfaction in the market.
Next Week’s Crypto Major Events
- Tuesday (July 16): US June Retail Sales MoM; BEVM Computing Power RWA Ecological Brand Conference
- Wednesday (July 17): Bitcoin Roundtable hosted by US Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna
- Thursday (July 18): ECB Main Refinancing Rate
- Friday (July 19): South Korea’s Cabinet passes the Enforcement Decree of the Virtual Asset User Protection Act
- Sunday (July 21): ETH Global Paris
Outlook for Next Week:
- Bitcoin: The Mtgox compensation plan has been confirmed to be gradually paid out within 3 months. The German government’s BTC holdings have reduced to 9,094 coins, with the sell-off expected to conclude next week. Short-term bearish factors in the market are gradually decreasing, but ongoing attention is needed on Mtgox compensation progress.
- Ethereum: The market expects the approval of the ETH spot ETF by July 15, with focus on whether the S1 filing for the spot ETF will be successful.
- Altcoin: With major bearish factors in the market diminishing and considering previous oversold conditions, next week is likely to see continued rebound in altcoins.