BTC and ETH Weekly Overview

Market Performance

This Week’s Cryptocurrency Market Overview

Overall Market Performance: The cryptocurrency market experienced “significant volatility” this week, with both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) undergoing sharp fluctuations due to various macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

• Bitcoin (BTC): Bitcoin experienced a steep decline on Monday, influenced by global market downturns. However, the release of macroeconomic data on Tuesday improved market sentiment, leading to a rebound in Bitcoin’s price.
• Ethereum (ETH): Ethereum also saw a rapid decline on Monday, exacerbated by a cascade of liquidations. Although there was some recovery later in the week, the rebound was relatively modest.

Key Events

1. Global Market Downturn Triggered by U.S. Recession Fears: On Monday, Japan’s stock market plummeted, triggering circuit breakers. This was followed by a broad sell-off in U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 hitting a low of 5,119 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping to 38,499 points, and the Nasdaq Composite falling to 15,708 points. The market reacted strongly to U.S. employment data that fell short of expectations, sparking fears of an economic recession. This led to risk-averse behavior and panic selling. However, as other macroeconomic data were released midweek, the market began to recover and rebound.
2. U.S. Macroeconomic Data: The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July came in at 51.4, surpassing expectations. Additionally, initial jobless claims at the start of August fell to 233,000. These figures alleviated concerns about an economic recession, helping the market gradually recover.
3. Increased Geopolitical Uncertainty: Last week, after the top Hamas leader was attacked in Iran, Iran threatened retaliation against Israel. While no action has been taken yet, the heightened uncertainty in the Middle East has added to market concerns, exerting pressure on global markets.
4. U.S. Democratic Party Confirms Presidential Candidate: With President Biden announcing he will not seek re-election, the Democratic Party has nominated current Vice President Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate. Harris has held preliminary discussions with cryptocurrency industry executives. Although she has not made any explicit statements, the market has begun speculating about the Democratic Party’s future stance on cryptocurrency policy.

Altcoin Market Overview

Overall Performance

This week, market sentiment rose slightly to 9.2%, but it remains in the “extreme fear” zone, down significantly from last week’s 12%. This shift in sentiment was primarily triggered by last Friday’s U.S. employment data, which fell far below expectations, fueling concerns about a potential future recession. As a result, risk-averse behavior and panic selling led to a sharp decline in global markets on Monday, with most altcoins experiencing drops of over 20%.

As other macroeconomic data was released later in the week, recession fears eased somewhat, and the market began to rebound. However, the recovery in most tokens was weaker than the broader market, reflecting continued caution among investors, who remain mostly on the sidelines regarding altcoins.

Top Performers of the Week

The top five tokens by price increase over the past week (excluding low-volume tokens and meme coins) are as follows. Data source: Coinmarketcap.

The leaderboard does not show a “sector concentration” characteristic, as the top-performing tokens are spread across various sectors, including DEX, Depin, L1s, Wallet, and Privacy tracks. This indicates that the market is still in a rebound phase.

Meme Token Leaderboard

The Meme sector experienced significant declines after the market drop on Monday, with projects falling by more than 30%. Although the sector rebounded along with the broader market from Tuesday onwards, and even outpaced other sectors in terms of recovery, the gains in Meme tokens were not particularly remarkable.

Notably, the rapid turnover in Meme themes has become more pronounced. While this highlights the sector’s vibrancy and potential, it also exposes its instability and high rate of renewal. This volatility could undermine long-term investor confidence, posing challenges to the sustained growth of the sector.

Social Media Hotspots

According to data from LunarCrush’s top daily growth and Scopechat’s top AI scores for this week (8.3–8.9), the most frequently mentioned theme was L1s. The tokens appearing on the list are as follows (excluding tokens with low trading volume and meme coins):

From the table, it can be seen that the L1s sector projects highlighted on social media this week experienced mixed fluctuations. Although some tokens rebounded after the significant drop, if the rebound is weaker than the overall market and there are no special events influencing it, this may indicate that the underlying capital strength is relatively weak.

Topic Tracking

According to weekly returns, the payment sector performed the best, while the RWA sector performed the worst.

• Payment Sector: XRP is the major player in this sector, accounting for 68.01% of the market value. This week, Ripple won its lawsuit against the SEC, with the court ruling that XRP’s sales did not violate federal securities laws, and the fines imposed were lower than expected. This positive news drove a strong rebound in XRP, leading to an outstanding performance for the entire payment sector this week.
• RWA Sector: Influenced by expectations of an economic recession in the U.S., stock and bond yields fell this week, leading to the weakest rebound in the RWA sector, which connects to real-world assets, resulting in relatively poor performance.

Next Week’s Crypto Events

• Tuesday, August 13: FireNow: Asian Web 3.0 Institutional Summit
• Wednesday, August 14: US July End CPI Year-on-Year; Istanbul Blockchain Week 2024
• Thursday, August 15: US July Retail Sales Month-on-Month
• Friday, August 16: OnChain Summit; ETHShenzhen 2024 Summit and Hackathon

Outlook for Next Week

1. Bitcoin: Although recent US recession fears have eased, macroeconomic and geopolitical risks remain. Bitcoin is expected to continue fluctuating widely before the Fed’s interest rate cut. Investors should remain cautious but watch for potential rebound opportunities.
2. Ethereum: With continued inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs, there may be short-term buying opportunities. However, long-term risks persist. Ethereum is expected to move in sync with Bitcoin, and investors should exercise caution with bullish sentiments.
3. Altcoin: After this week’s sharp decline, Altcoins may experience a rebound, but gains may be limited. Investors should maintain a cautious approach and monitor market developments.