Market Overview

Overall Market Conditions

This week, the cryptocurrency market experienced a downward trend with continued volatility. The market sentiment index declined slightly from 8% to 7%. Meanwhile, the stablecoin market cap continued its rapid growth, with USDT reaching $143.3 billion (+0.42%) and USDC at $58.3 billion (+1.92%), indicating that institutional funds are still flowing in despite market weakness. The inflow is primarily driven by U.S. investors, who have maintained high entry momentum even after three consecutive weeks of market decline.

Mid-week, the market saw a rebound due to several key factors: the Russia-Ukraine conflict reaching a preliminary 30-day ceasefire agreement, an initial U.S.-Ukraine mining development agreement, lower-than-expected CPI data increasing expectations for more Fed rate cuts this year, and flexibility in U.S. tariff policies on Canada and Mexico. However, concerns over market volatility, unpredictable policy shifts, and future tariff and inflation risks have kept sentiment fragile, leading to weaker performance for altcoins compared to benchmark indices.

Bullish Picks: JUP, BNB, EUL

JUP: Solana Ecosystem Recovery & Buyback Plan Driving Revaluation

Solana Ecosystem Revival As the largest DeFi project on Solana, Jupiter’s growth is closely tied to Solana’s DeFi activity. With Solana proposing SIMD-0228 and on-chain activity increasing, Solana’s TVL (in SOL terms) rose by 9.21%, lifting Jupiter’s prospects and signaling ecosystem recovery.
Buyback Plan & Revenue Potential Jupiter has launched a three-year buyback plan, committing 50% of protocol revenue to repurchase JUP tokens. Despite weak market sentiment, Jupiter’s revenue remains strong, generating $102 million in 2024, with a recent 24-hour revenue of $470,000. The 2025 revenue forecast exceeds $150 million, with at least $75 million allocated for buybacks, providing solid price support.
Valuation Analysis With a market cap of $1.367 billion and projected revenue of $150 million, Jupiter’s P/E ratio (based on buyback allocation) is only 18.22, indicating strong investment potential. The combination of robust revenue growth and large-scale buybacks makes JUP a standout opportunity.

BNB: $2B Investment from UAE Sovereign Fund Strengthens Financial & Regulatory Position

Significance of UAE Investment Binance secured a $2 billion investment from the UAE sovereign fund MGX, a major development for the crypto industry. This investment signals the UAE government’s recognition of Binance’s compliance efforts and enhances its global reputation.
Regulatory Shield in the Middle East The UAE’s lack of an extradition treaty with the U.S. grants Binance judicial independence, reducing regulatory pressure from U.S. authorities and providing greater flexibility for compliance in the region.
Strong Financial Backing While this $2 billion investment is one of the largest in crypto history, it represents only a small portion of MGX’s assets, demonstrating Binance’s access to long-term, substantial capital support.
Triple Moat & Potential Upside This investment strengthens Binance in three key areas: capital, compliance, and geopolitical positioning. Additionally, as other exchanges settle with the SEC, Binance may also reach a resolution, which would be a major catalyst for BNB’s growth.

EUL: Record TVL & Stable Asset Yield Strategies Strengthening DeFi

TVL Surge Euler’s TVL recently hit a record $384 million, driven by improved capital efficiency and optimized yield strategies.
High-Yield Collateral With Pendle integration, PT-wstkscUSD and PT-wstkscETH have been added as collateral, offering impressive yields of 76.36% and 50.37%, respectively, attracting significant capital inflows.
Bitcoin Lending Expansion Euler introduced LBTC and wBTC as collateral with high LTV ratios, adding $56 million to TVL and creating arbitrage opportunities for users.
Innovative Yield Strategies Euler launched mEDGE and mMEV strategies, integrated into Euler Yield, further boosting user returns.
Emerging DeFi Trends Amid market uncertainty, investors are increasingly favoring stablecoin and blue-chip asset yield strategies, solidifying DeFi as a core pillar of the market.

Bearish Picks: HYPE, ACE, TAO, STRAX, ID

HYPE: Insider Trading Scandal Causes TVL & Volume Crash on Hyperliquid

The “Insider” Incident A trader, dubbed “Insider,” exploited Hyperliquid’s rules and the crypto market’s low liquidity, using 50x leverage for frequent trades, manipulating margin, and intentionally triggering liquidations for profit. On March 12, this resulted in over $4 million in losses for Hyperliquid.
Impact on Hyperliquid The incident went viral, causing widespread panic and mass withdrawals from Hyperliquid. As a result, TVL plummeted by 29.61% in 24 hours, with trading volume dropping by approximately 27%.
Rule Changes & Long-Term Concerns In response, Hyperliquid reduced maximum leverage from 50x to 25x and adjusted margin requirements. While these changes mitigate future risks, they may also deter traders, potentially reducing trading volume and TVL in the long run.

Hyperliquid Capital Inflows (Data Source: Hyperliquid Stats)

HLP Fund Status (Data Source: Hyperliquid Stats)

Bearish Picks: ACE, TAO, STRAX, ID

ACE: Fusionist Faces Dual Pressure from Market Weakness & Token Unlocking

Market Downturn Impact Fusionist integrates SocialFi, NFTs, and GameFi, but these sectors have lost traction, leading to declining user engagement and stalled capital inflows. As a result, Fusionist’s activity has significantly dropped.
ACE Token Unlock Pressure On March 17, 3.32 million ACE tokens (2.26% of total locked supply) will be unlocked, primarily held by VCs. Given the project’s declining momentum, institutional investors may sell to recover funds, increasing sell pressure on ACE.

TAO: Bittensor Faces Market FUD, Token Unlock May Intensify Sell Pressure

AI Sector Correction Bittensor is a leading AI-based project, but the AI sector has been hit hard due to overvaluation and its strong ties to speculative Meme tokens. Despite active subnets, Bittensor remains affected by overall market FUD.
TAO Token Unlock Pressure On March 20, 216,000 TAO tokens (1.13% of total locked supply) will be unlocked. Given the substantial unlock size, this could add downward pressure on TAO’s price.

STRAX: Stratis Faces Weak Market Demand, Large Token Unlock Poses Risks

Declining Market Interest Stratis, a Blockchain-as-a-Service (BaaS) platform in the modular blockchain sector, has seen reduced market interest following Ethereum’s ecosystem cooldown. The project has struggled to attract new capital.
STRAX Token Unlock Risk On March 20, 75 million STRAX tokens (3.42% of total locked supply) will be unlocked, mostly held by VCs and the project team. The large unlock size is likely to put downward pressure on STRAX’s price.

ID: SPACE ID Faces Large Token Unlock & Potential Sell Pressure

Project Overview SPACE ID provides a universal identity platform for Web3 domain discovery, registration, trading, and management.
ID Token Unlock Pressure On March 21, 78.48 million ID tokens (3.92% of total locked supply) will be unlocked. The significant unlock volume, primarily held by early investors and the project team, could lead to selling pressure on ID’s price.

Market Sentiment Index Analysis

The market sentiment index dropped slightly from 8% to 7%, remaining in the extreme fear zone.

Trending Sector

DeFi’s Value Reassessment

DeFi Value Accumulation

As the Meme coin hype fades, market attention is shifting back to DeFi. Investors are looking to reignite a new DeFi Summer, focusing on:

Sustainable value accumulation rather than inflationary token incentives.
High-yield opportunities backed by strong revenue models.

Key DeFi Projects with Buyback Models

DeFi projects are increasingly implementing buyback mechanisms using a portion of their revenue, strengthening their token economics.

Aave Launched a $1M weekly buyback plan for six months, aiming to accumulate a $100M treasury fund (3% of circulating supply). Established an Aave Financial Council (AFC) to manage treasury and liquidity. Introduced the Umbrella risk management system, optimizing a $27M annual liquidity cost. Replaced previous discount models with Anti-GHO, allowing 1:1 token burn for debt offset or conversion into revenue-linked StkGHO.
Jupiter Allocating 50% of protocol fees to buy back and lock JUP tokens for three years. Implemented a transparency dashboard for users to track buyback activity. Completed its first buyback of $3.33M for 48,800 JUP tokens. Estimated to buy back over $75M worth of JUP this year.

Investment Implications:

Projects with strong cash flow and buyback credibility provide price support for their tokens.
The P/E ratio (price-to-earnings) is a critical valuation metric for DeFi projects. MakerDAO (MKR), a leader in the DeFi buyback sector, has a P/E ratio of 21.63, serving as a benchmark. Investors can compare other DeFi projects’ P/E ratios to determine if they are undervalued.
Monitor DefiLlama’s revenue rankings for top-earning projects that have implemented buyback programs.

High-Yield DeFi Projects

The previous DeFi boom was fueled by airdrop farming, where projects distributed high points-based APY. However, real yield has become the new standard for attracting investors.

Key High-APY DeFi Projects

Ethereal (TVL: $438M) Collaborates with Pendle & Ethena, allowing users to deposit USDe to earn eUSDe. eUSDe offers Ethereal points + 30x Ethena reward multipliers. Depositing eUSDe into Pendle provides a 14.09% APY. Overall real yield: 14.09%, with total APY exceeding 25% (including points incentives).
YieldNest (TVL: $112M) Developed MAX LRTs, an upgraded Pendle-like liquid staking solution. Focuses on capital efficiency and DeFi composability for optimized yield strategies. Supports BTC restaking on BNB Chain while integrating AVS exposure.
Euler (TVL: $421M) Supported by Pendle, offering PT-wstkscUSD & PT-wstkscETH as collateral. Maximum APYs: 76.36% (USD collateral) & 50.37% (ETH collateral). Expanded BTC lending options (LBTC & wBTC) with high LTV. Introduced mEDGE & mMEV yield strategies, boosting TVL by $56M.

Investment Takeaways:

High-APY projects often rely on collaborations with other high-yield protocols (e.g., Pendle).
Sustainable high-yield strategies require strong underlying asset fundamentals. If the underlying assets decline, the high-yield strategy may collapse.
Investors cautious about high-risk strategies can invest in the underlying yield-generating DeFi protocols (e.g., Pendle) for beta exposure.

Overall Market Sector Performance

Weekly Sector Performance Analysis

Best-Performing Sector: CeFi Dominant Assets: BNB & BGB (86.66% of the sector) Weekly Returns: BNB: -0.92%, BGB: -7.86% CeFi outperformed other sectors due to its relatively lower drawdown.
Worst-Performing Sector: DePIN Dominant Assets: FIL, RENDER, THETA, IOTA (69.84% of the sector) Weekly Returns: FIL: -10.91%, RENDER: -25.46%, THETA: -19.49%, IOTA: -16.48% The high volatility in DePIN led to its underperformance this week.

Upcoming Crypto Events (March 17–21)

Monday (March 17): U.S. February Retail Sales Data CME launches SOL futures trading
Wednesday (March 19): Next Block Expo Warsaw 2025
Thursday (March 20): U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Fed Chair Powell’s Monetary Policy Press Conference
Friday (March 21): SEC Crypto Working Group’s First Roundtable Meeting

Market Summary & Outlook