Market Overview
Market Summary
This week, the crypto market experienced volatility. Bitcoin underwent a choppy performance, while ETH showed independent strength, posting a notable upward trend. Altcoins followed the broader market, displaying a choppy downward trend. The market sentiment index dropped from 87% last week to 59%, entering a neutral zone overall.
Stablecoin Market Dynamics
The stablecoin market maintained its strong upward momentum from last week, with both USDT and USDC experiencing synchronized growth:
- USDT: Market cap reached $162.6 billion, up 1.31% WoW, continuing a rapid growth trend. Weekly capital inflow exceeded $2 billion for the first time in recent periods, indicating strong capital inflows.
- USDC: Market cap stood at $65.1 billion, a 2.36% WoW increase, maintaining last weekâs rapid growth. Weekly inflow reached $1.5 billion, reflecting accelerated entry of US-based capital.
This trend deserves investor attention. The rapid growth of USDT implies aggressive institutional capital inflows, particularly from non-U.S. entities. Concurrently, USDC also saw its highest inflow in recent periods, with over $1 billion added, signaling increased activity from U.S. investors. Over recent weeks, regardless of market direction, capital inflows have remained strong.
Market Drivers Analysis
- Technical correction: After strong gains in BTC and ETH over the past two weeks, daily chart divergence signaled a correction.
- Profit-taking pressure: Some BTC and ETH holders cashed out, including suspected super whales like Justin Sun.
- Institutional demand support: Treasury demand for ETH remains strong, supporting its price.
- Lack of macro catalysts: Absence of major macro events contributed to market choppiness.
International Trade & Political Factors
- Tariff agreement progress: U.S. reached a 15% tariff deal with Japan and is nearing a similar agreement with the EU, boosting market sentiment.
- Concerns over Fed independence: Escalation of tensions between Trump and Fed Chair Powell raised fears about the Fedâs autonomy.
Forecast: Key Events Next Week
- FOMC rate decision: While no rate cut is expected, attention will be on Powellâs press conference and dot plot for September clues.
- Employment data: U.S. July unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls will heavily influence Fed decisions on a September rate cut.
- Inflation indicators: U.S. June core PCE price index release will impact Fedâs future policy direction.
Investment Strategy Recommendations
- Stay cautious: Anticipate short-term volatility due to major macro data releases.
- Guard against âblack swanâ risks: Prepare for outlier economic data surprises.
- Focus on data-driven moves: Closely monitor employment and inflation figures to assess their impact on September rate cut expectations.
Market Outlook
Technical pullbacks and profit-taking could prolong market consolidation. However, sustained institutional demand remains a key support factor. Upcoming macroeconomic data will determine short-term trends. Investors should stay alert to FOMC outcomes, jobs reports, and inflation data while preparing for potential volatility.
REZ: Restaking Platform Faces Liquidity Challenges from Token Unlock
Project Overview
Renzo is a restaking protocol built on EigenLayer, allowing users to earn staking rewards without locking liquidity, via derivative token ezETH.
Market Weakness
- ETH underperformance: Since Nov 2024, ETH has lagged BTC, resulting in lackluster growth across Ethereum ecosystem projects.
- Lack of ecosystem capital inflow: ETH restaking protocols, including Renzo, failed to attract renewed investor interest.
- Declining market share: Renzoâs share in the restaking sector has fallen to 8.67%, signaling weakening competitiveness.
Fundamentals Deteriorate
- TVL decline: Renzoâs ETH-denominated TVL fell to 356,773 ETH, a recent low.
- Capital outflows: Chain data shows sustained net outflows from Renzo.
- Low user engagement: Daily deposits remain in single digits.
- Rising withdrawals: Daily withdrawals peaked at 20,747 ETH.
Token Unlock Risk
- Unlock scale and timing: On July 29, 423.7 million REZ tokens (4.24% of total supply) will be unlocked.
- Poor liquidity absorption: With ~$4M in daily trading volume, the market lacks capacity to absorb unlocked tokens.
- High sell-off pressure: Unlocked tokens primarily belong to investors/team â likely to cash out due to poor market outlook.
- Shallow liquidity: Low depth increases the price shock risk from large-scale unlock.
Summary
The Renzo project faces multiple systemic risks. At the market level, the overall performance of the ETH ecosystem has been lackluster, and the attractiveness of the restaking sector is waning. On the business front, TVL continues to decline, user activity remains weak, and capital outflows persist. From a capital perspective, the upcoming unlock of 4.237 billion REZ tokens on July 29 will create immense selling pressure in a market with thin liquidity â average daily trading volume is only $4 million. Moreover, the unlocked tokens are primarily held by institutional investors and the project team, who have strong incentives to cash out. These combined bearish factors are expected to exert sustained negative pressure on the REZ token price, making a short-term reversal unlikely.
BIGTIME: Web3 Game Leader Faces Crises and Unlock Risk
Project Overview
BIGTIME is a time-travel themed MMORPG built on Ethereum, combining fast combat, NFT collection, and time-space adventure.
Market Weakness
- GameFi stagnation: The GameFi sector has remained dull since 2022 despite the new bull run.
- Distraction from new sectors: Meme coins have diverted attention and capital from GameFi.
- Failing leadership: BIGTIME failed to lead a GameFi revival and has suffered from market headwinds.
Fundamentals Deteriorate
- User activity decline: Active users have dropped to a yearly low of just 68.
- Low chain activity: On-chain transfers fell to 106 daily, signaling a decaying game ecosystem.
- Withdrawal behavior tied to market: Users cash out during upswings, lacking long-term commitment.
Token Unlock Risk
- Unlock scale and timing: On July 30, 600 million BIGTIME tokens (12% of total supply) will be unlocked.
- Liquidity constraints: With only $7.5M daily trading volume, the unlock presents major selling pressure.
- High sell-off motivation: Unlock targets investors/team with strong cash-out incentives.
- Poor market depth: The market is ill-equipped to absorb large unlocks.
Summary
The BIGTIME project is under significant systemic bearish pressure. At the industry level, the GameFi sector remains sluggish and has been sidelined by emerging narratives such as Meme coins. On the user front, both active user count and interaction frequency have dropped to recent lows, with only 68 active users and 106 daily transactions. Behaviorally, existing users tend to cash out quickly during market upswings, showing little interest in long-term participation. From a capital standpoint, the upcoming unlock of 600 million BIGTIME tokens (12% of total supply) on July 30 will introduce substantial selling pressure in a market with thin liquidity â daily trading volume averages just $4.2 million. These tokens are primarily held by institutional investors and the project team, who are highly motivated to liquidate. The accumulation of these bearish factors is expected to place sustained and severe downward pressure on the BIGTIME token price, making a short-term recovery highly unlikely.
Next Weekâs Token Unlocks (>$1M)
Market Sentiment Index
Sentiment dropped: from 87% to 59%
Performance: BTC -1.91%, ETH +3.42%, TOTAL3 -0.4%
Altcoins: returned to neutral sentiment zone
Key Headline: Rise of ETH Treasuries
Rise of ETH Treasuries: Institutional Inflows Accelerate, Monthly Purchasing Power 1.47x That of Bitcoin
Introduction
As institutional participation in the crypto market continues to grow, investors are exploring new strategies to incorporate digital assets into their balance sheets. Following MicroStrategyâs pioneering move in August 2020 to adopt Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, other companies have since emulated the strategy, contributing significantly to BTCâs performance in this bull cycle. More recently, a wave of Ethereum treasury firms has begun to emerge, positioning ETH as a strategic reserve asset.
According to the latest data, as of July 2025, over 1.87 million ETH â worth approximately $6.83 billion â has been locked in institutional strategic reserves, marking a 58.47% month-over-month increase from June.
This trend reflects a growing institutional recognition of ETH as a long-term reserve asset. Unlike Bitcoin, which is viewed as âdigital gold,â ETH is increasingly regarded by market participants as âdigital oilâ â a scarce asset that not only offers staking yield but also plays a critical role in the broader Ethereum ecosystem.
Overview of ETH Treasury Holdings Major Holding Institutions and Scale According to the latest data, the major ETH treasury companies in the U.S. stock market include three representative enterprises, each adopting different strategies and paths to build their ETH reserves:
SharpLink Gaming (SBET):
- Asset scale: Holds approximately 360,800 ETH, with a market value of around $1.278 billion
- Recent accumulation pace: Net increase of approximately 144,600 ETH over the past 30 days
- Company background: Led by Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin, providing strong ecosystem endorsement for the ETH treasury model
- Highlights: The only enterprise with publicly traceable ETH addresses; fund flows and staking activities can be fully verified via platforms like Arkham
Bitmine Immersion Tech (BMNR):
- Asset scale: Holds approximately 300,700 ETH, with a market value of around $1.074 billion
- Recent accumulation pace: Net increase of approximately 300,700 ETH over the past 30 days (the company completed its first large-scale purchase in July)
- Company background: Led by Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, with a strong traditional finance background and institutional connections
- Highlights: Has not yet disclosed on-chain addresses and staking details but has announced plans to initiate ETH staking
Bit Digital (BTBT):
- Asset scale: Holds approximately 120,300 ETH, with a market value of around $429 million
- Recent accumulation pace: Net increase of approximately 92,700 ETH over the past 30 days
- Company background: Led by CEO Samir Tabar, who has backgrounds with Merrill Lynch and BitMEX
- Highlights: About 88% of ETH holdings are actively staked, running 675 Ethereum validator nodes; institutional shareholders include BlackRock, Invesco, and VanEck, holding 3.53%, 2.12%, and 1.61% of the companyâs shares, respectively
According to the above data, these three companies collectively hold approximately 544,300 ETH, accounting for about 0.65% of the total ETH supply. Although the overall share is still relatively small, it is noteworthy that this proportion has nearly tripled over the past six months, indicating rapidly growing institutional interest in ETH.
Comparison with BTC Treasuries In contrast, BTC treasury companies hold more concentrated and larger-scale positions:
Major BTC treasury holdings:
- MicroStrategy (MSTR): Holds approximately 607,770 BTC, accounting for 2.89% of the total BTC supply
- MARA Holdings, INC. (MARA): Holds approximately 50,000 BTC, accounting for 0.238%
- XIA (CEP): Holds approximately 37,230 BTC, accounting for 0.1772%
- Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company (BSTR): Holds approximately 30,021 BTC, accounting for 0.142%
Comparison of purchase pace:
- Over the past 30 days, MicroStrategy increased its holdings by approximately 15,425 BTC (worth about $1.759 billion)
- During the same period, ETH treasury companies collectively increased their holdings by approximately 693,200 ETH (worth about $2.582 billion)
- The purchasing pace of ETH treasury companies (measured in USD) is approximately 1.47 times that of BTC treasury companies
Comparison of Market Influence:
- BTC treasury companies (especially MicroStrategy) have become one of the primary narrative drivers in the market.
- ETH treasury companies are still in the development stage and have yet to establish a dominant position comparable to that of MicroStrategy.
Therefore, based on the data above, we can conclude that ETH treasury companies have shown significantly stronger purchasing momentum than BTC treasury companies in the near term. Moreover, coupled with ETHâs price performance, it is evident that ETH treasury activity has had a more immediate impact on ETH prices compared to the influence BTC treasuries have on BTC prices.
Operating Models of ETH Treasury Companies
ETH treasury companies utilize a variety of financing strategies to fund their ETH acquisitions. These strategies reflect both their financial conditions and market positioning:
SharpLink Gaming:
- In May 2025, raised approximately $420 million through PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) financing.
- Investors include prominent crypto investment institutions such as Paradigm, a16z, and Pantera Capital.
- In July, increased its ATM (At-The-Market) equity offering program from $1 billion to $6 billion.
- According to the companyâs announcement, ATM financing will be executed flexibly based on market conditions to avoid excessive pressure on share price.
- Financing terms granted investors a ~15% discount, with a 180-day lock-up period.
Bitmine Immersion Tech:
- Completed a $250 million private placement in June 2025, at an issuance price of $32.5 per share.
- Founders Fund acquired a 9.1% strategic stake, becoming the companyâs largest institutional shareholder.
- Shortly after the private placement, the company initiated its ETH purchasing plan, acquiring approximately 300,700 ETH within two weeks.
- The company has stated its intention to increase ETH holdings to 500,000 ETH by the end of 2025.
- According to SEC filings, the company has filed for up to $1 billion in mixed securities issuance, preparing for future fundraising.
Bit Digital:
- In early July 2025, raised approximately $120 million via public stock issuance at $2.85 per share.
- On July 15, raised an additional $67.3 million through a targeted common stock offering at $3.65 per share.
- The two funding rounds issued about 50 million new shares, resulting in roughly 20% equity dilution.
- The company stated that all funds raised will be used for ETH purchases and not for operational expenses.
- According to its latest financial report, the company plans another equity offering in Q3 2025, aiming to raise $200 million.
Objective Comparison Between ETH and BTC Treasury Models
ETH and BTC, as reserve assets, possess distinct characteristics. These differences directly influence the operating strategies and financial models of treasury companies.
Yield Generation Mechanism:
ETH Yield Model:
- Generates an annual yield of approximately 2â4% through staking, without reliance on external mechanisms.
- Rewards are paid directly in ETH, enabling a compounding effect.
- Yield decreases with an increasing number of validators but remains relatively stable.
- No counterparty risk; yield is guaranteed by the protocol.
- According to Artemis data, Ethereumâs native staking APY has consistently remained between 2% and 4% since the Merge.
BTC Yield Model:
- BTC does not generate yield on its own; it is a purely non-yield-bearing asset.
- Treasury companies must create yield through instruments like convertible bonds or preferred shares.
- These external yield strategies often involve counterparty and market risks.
Market Volatility:
ETH Volatility Profile:
- According to Artemis data, ETHâs historical volatility is typically 20%â30% higher than BTCâs.
- Over the past year, ETHâs annualized volatility was approximately 65%, compared to BTCâs 52%.
- Higher volatility also means greater short-term price risk.
BTC Volatility Profile:
- Relatively lower volatility, especially post-ETF approval.
- Greater institutional participation enables more efficient price discovery.
- As âdigital gold,â BTCâs price movements are more closely tied to macroeconomic factors.
- Holdings by BTC treasury companies like MicroStrategy provide a degree of market support.
Conclusion
ETH treasury companies and BTC treasury companies represent two distinct approaches to institutional digital asset strategy. The former leverages ETHâs native staking yield and ecosystem value to support a more sustainable business model; the latter relies on BTCâs simplicity, market dominance, and clear regulatory status to establish a more mature market presence.
While ETH treasuries offer advantages in yield generation and capital efficiency, they also face greater technical complexity and operational challenges. Conversely, BTC treasuries, though lacking native yield, benefit from operational simplicity and regulatory clarity. As institutional adoption continues to expand, both models are expected to evolve in parallel, jointly driving the mainstream adoption of digital assets as corporate reserve holdings.
Sector Performance Overview
According to Weekly Returns, NFT Sector Performed the Best, While PayFi Sector Lagged Behind
- NFT Sector: Within the NFT sector, PENGU, APE, NFT, and SUPER hold a significant combined share of 92.27%. Their weekly price changes were +30.72%, -2.36%, +0.57%, and -10.23%, respectively. Overall, the price performance of these major projects outpaced those in other sectors, making the NFT sector the top performer of the week.
- PayFi Sector: In the PayFi sector, XRP, XLM, BCH, and LTC account for 98.63% of the sectorâs weight. Their respective weekly performances were -0.96%, -5.58%, +5.12%, -2.16%, and +7.63%. The relatively weaker performance of these large-cap tokens led to the PayFi sector being the worst-performing segment this week.
Upcoming Major Crypto Events Next Week
- Wednesday (July 30): U.S. July ADP Employment Change
- Thursday (July 31): U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision; Fed Chair Jerome Powellâs Monetary Policy Press Conference; U.S. June Core PCE Price Index
- Friday (August 1): U.S. July Unemployment Rate; U.S. July Non-Farm Payrolls (seasonally adjusted); U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI; Final July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Summary
This week, the cryptocurrency market experienced choppy movements, with notable volatility in Bitcoin and independent strength in Ethereum. The market sentiment index declined to 59%, placing the overall market in a neutral zone. The stablecoin sector continued to grow at a rapid pace, with weekly inflows of over $2 billion for USDT and $1.5 billion for USDC, signaling accelerated global capital inflows.
Market volatility was primarily driven by four key factors: technical correction needs, profit-taking pressure, strong institutional demand (especially for ETH), and a lack of major macroeconomic events. In international trade, the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement boosted sentiment, while on the political front, tensions between Trump and Fed Chair Powell raised concerns about the Fedâs independence.
ETH treasury companies are rapidly emerging as a new market focus. As of July, approximately 1.87 million ETH ($6.83 billion) had been locked in institutional strategic reserves, representing a 58.47% increase from June. The leading ETH treasury firms â SharpLink Gaming, Bitmine Immersion Tech, and Bit Digital â collectively hold around 544,300 ETH. Over the past 30 days, ETH treasury companies increased their holdings at a rate (in USD terms) approximately 1.47 times that of BTC treasury companies, reflecting a surge in institutional interest in ETH. Compared to BTC treasuries, ETH treasuries offer advantages such as native staking yield and ecosystem utility, but they also face greater technical complexity and volatility risks.
Looking ahead to next week, the market will enter a period of dense macroeconomic data releases, including U.S. ADP employment figures, the FOMC rate decision, core PCE inflation, unemployment rate, and non-farm payrolls. While markets have fully priced in no rate cut this time, investors will closely monitor Powellâs speech and the Fedâs dot plot for clues on a possible rate cut in September.
In the short term, the crypto market may continue to consolidate, but the sustained growth in the stablecoin market provides a strong foundation for long-term support. Continued institutional demand â particularly from ETH treasury companies â will be a key factor in propping up the market. Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance, prepare for potential âblack swanâ events, closely watch labor and inflation data for signs of policy shifts, and remain ready for increased volatility. In light of technical correction pressure and profit-taking activity, itâs recommended that investors manage their positions carefully, avoid blindly chasing market highs, and focus on deploying capital into high-quality projects during market pullbacks.
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